3040 Lakeview · Nice, CA 95464

$112,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Land · 169 Days on market

Built 1969 4,792 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN Ready. Very clean, renovated mobile home on private land; new vinyl flooring throughout, new paint inside & out, rebuilt deck, new cooler, working propane 56K BTU furnace, electrical upgrades, new 40 GAL Water Heater, roof refurbished, landscaped, fenced and newly graveled. Large kitchen with spaces cabines, includes dining area with pantry. Laundry/workshop 10x25 feet addition. Close to Lake, shopping and freeway. Easy to maintain, plenty of parking for RV and 6 cars on this flat lot.

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Built 1969
• Listed 169 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community offers access to lake, park and outdoor recreation

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Has a view
• Construction: Year built per assessor; No ADU
• Exterior features: No pool; Rural setting with lake and park nearby; Nearby hiking, fishing and watersports

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; All bedrooms on the main level; Main level entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $112k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 5.1% in Nice — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#652 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Upper Lake Unified (rural): math 17% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #433 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $774 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.76%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,777
• Equity at exit: $16,700

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $17,448
• Equity at exit: $9,684

Cash invested: $31,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95464

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,298 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,008/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $993

Max offer price $112,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,000
• Closing costs: $3,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6667 Blue Heron Dr Apt H Upper Lake, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,298	$2.16	43d	1	0.64mi
6687 Blue Heron Dr Unit 6667 H Upper Lake, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,298	$2.16	43d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-03-13
   price $112,000
2. 2026-03-06
   status Active
3. 2026-03-06
   price $115,000
4. 2026-02-22
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2025-12-17
   status Active
6. 2025-12-10
   listed $119,000 Active
7. 2025-12-10
   historical
8. 2025-12-01
   listed $119,000 Active
9. 2025-11-26
   historical $119,000
10. 2022-09-28
    soldstatus $90,000 Closed Sale 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    MOVE IN Ready. Very clean, renovated mobile home on private land; new vinyl flooring throughout, new paint inside & out, rebuilt deck, new cooler, working propane 56K BTU furnace, electrical upgrades, new 40 GAL Water Heater, roof refurbished, landscaped, fenced and newly graveled. Large kitchen with spaces cabines, includes dining area with pantry. Laundry/workshop 10x25 feet addition. Close to Lake, shopping and freeway. Easy to maintain, plenty of parking for RV and 6 cars on this flat lot.

11. 2022-09-28
    soldstatus $90,000

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    MOVE IN Ready. Very clean, renovated mobile home on private land; new vinyl flooring throughout, new paint inside & out, rebuilt deck, new cooler, working propane 56K BTU furnace, electrical upgrades, new 40 GAL Water Heater, roof refurbished, landscaped, fenced and newly graveled. Large kitchen with spaces cabines, includes dining area with pantry. Laundry/workshop 10x25 feet addition. Close to Lake, shopping and freeway. Easy to maintain, plenty of parking for RV and 6 cars on this flat lot.

12. 2022-09-18
    status Pending Sale 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    MOVE IN Ready. Very clean, renovated mobile home on private land; new vinyl flooring throughout, new paint inside & out, rebuilt deck, new cooler, working propane 56K BTU furnace, electrical upgrades, new 40 GAL Water Heater, roof refurbished, landscaped, fenced and newly graveled. Large kitchen with spaces cabines, includes dining area with pantry. Laundry/workshop 10x25 feet addition. Close to Lake, shopping and freeway. Easy to maintain, plenty of parking for RV and 6 cars on this flat lot.

13. 2022-09-13
    historical Active Under Contract 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    MOVE IN Ready. Very clean, renovated mobile home on private land; new vinyl flooring throughout, new paint inside & out, rebuilt deck, new cooler, working propane 56K BTU furnace, electrical upgrades, new 40 GAL Water Heater, roof refurbished, landscaped, fenced and newly graveled. Large kitchen with spaces cabines, includes dining area with pantry. Laundry/workshop 10x25 feet addition. Close to Lake, shopping and freeway. Easy to maintain, plenty of parking for RV and 6 cars on this flat lot.

14. 2022-09-02
    listed $93,000 Active 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    MOVE IN Ready. Very clean, renovated mobile home on private land; new vinyl flooring throughout, new paint inside & out, rebuilt deck, new cooler, working propane 56K BTU furnace, electrical upgrades, new 40 GAL Water Heater, roof refurbished, landscaped, fenced and newly graveled. Large kitchen with spaces cabines, includes dining area with pantry. Laundry/workshop 10x25 feet addition. Close to Lake, shopping and freeway. Easy to maintain, plenty of parking for RV and 6 cars on this flat lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,008 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,008 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,274
• − Property taxes: −$1,008
• − Insurance: −$1,358
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,246
• − Management: −$1,246
• − Depreciation: −$3,258
• Taxable income: $1,186
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$285
• After-tax cash flow: $2,607/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Upper Lake Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601442
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,872
• Composite: 20.24/100
• National rank: #8624
• State rank: #433 of 517 in CA

Livability — Nice

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #652
• US rank: #20328

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B- Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nice, CA
• City population: 2,417
• Population (ZIP): 2,417

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 29% Native American 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.76%
• Current HPI: 177.0701
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+20.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $112,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $115,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-22 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-12-17 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $119,000 BAREIS
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $119,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-26 Coming Soon $119,000 CRMLS
• 2022-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-28 Sold (MLS) $90,000 CRMLS
• 2022-09-18 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-09-13 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2022-09-02 Listed $93,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,008 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.