5108 154th Cir

Urbandale, IA 50323

$529,950D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,533 sqft · Built 2021 · Other · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,285/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax + insurance: −$909
• HOA: −$19
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-1,902/mo
• Annual: $-22,825/yr
• Cap rate: 1.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.38%
• DSCR: 0.32
• 1% rule: 0.43%
• Cash to close: $148,386

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $530k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (63.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (56.9% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($522k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (63.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in IA, #69 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Waukee Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #14 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Hills Elementary School (math 91% / reading 81%, grade A+, #26 of 616 statewide, top 4%, 625 students, 9% FRL); Waukee Middle School (math 83% / reading 81%, grade A+, #22 of 246 statewide, top 12%, 1,069 students, 12% FRL); Waukee High School (math 74% / reading 82%, grade A-, #53 of 336 statewide, top 16%, 1,268 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 381 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,503 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (630 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 13 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 11677% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($176k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.