5108 154th Cir · Urbandale, IA 50323

$529,950

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,533 sqft · Other public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2021 0.33 ac lot $209/sqft · 44% below area Est $602k · 12% under $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

$3,000 SELLER CREDIT! Get a $3,000 buyer incentive for any accepted offer on this home by June 20, 2026. Use it for closing costs, rate buy-downs, or upgrades! This better than new, east-facing, one-owner walk-out ranch offers premium features you won’t find in today’s new construction homes. Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac and built with durable 2x6 construction, the main level provides 1,600 sq. ft. of open-concept living highlighted by striking 20ft vaulted ceilings with large exposed beams and a highly functional layout featuring three bedrooms on the main floor. This 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home is filled with fully custom details, including wooden closet shelving throughout&m

Key facts

• 2x6 construction
• Cul-de-sac
• 0.33 acre lot

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• 2X6 CONSTRUCTION
• 20FT VAULTED CEILINGS
• WOODEN CLOSET SHELVING
• COVERED COMPOSITE DECK
• FINISHED WALK-OUT LOWER LEVEL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Terrus Real Estate Group) with an annual fee of $230

Exterior

• Parking: Attached three-car garage
• Security: Security system; Fire alarm; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: One-story home; Resale property; Built by Emanation Homes; Pie-shaped lot on a cul-de-sac; Concrete road access; Facing R zoning
• Construction: Poured foundation; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered deck/porch; Sprinkler/irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wet bar; Dining area; Eat-in kitchen; Cable TV; Window treatments; Finished basement with walk-out access; Electric fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $530k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (63.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (56.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (63.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in IA, #69 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Waukee Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #14 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Hills Elementary School (math 91% / reading 81%, grade A+, #26 of 616 statewide, top 4%, 625 students, 9% FRL); Waukee Middle School (math 83% / reading 81%, grade A+, #22 of 246 statewide, top 12%, 1,069 students, 12% FRL); Waukee High School (math 74% / reading 82%, grade A-, #53 of 336 statewide, top 16%, 1,268 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 381 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,503 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (630 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($176k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($522k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 11677% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $193,937 (63.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.38%
• DSCR: 0.32
• GRM: 19.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $601,731
• List price: $529,950
• Delta: -11.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-4,747
• Equity at exit: $294,135

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $93,416
• Equity at exit: $502,600

Cash invested: $148,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50323

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 19.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,285 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax from tax record: −$688 /mo · $8,262/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-1,902

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,693

Max offer price $193,937

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,602	-5% $-1,752	+0% $-1,902	+5% $-2,052	+10% $-2,202
Rent	-10% $-2,083	-5% $-1,992	+0% $-1,902	+5% $-1,812	+10% $-1,722
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,635	-0.5pp $-1,767	base $-1,902	+0.5pp $-2,039	+1.0pp $-2,179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,488
• Closing costs: $15,898
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5440 154th Ct Urbandale, IA	4.0	3.5	2367	$2,200	$0.93	21d	1	0.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $529,950 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $529,950 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $529,950 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $529,950 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $529,950 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $529,950 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $529,950 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $529,950 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $529,950 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    remarks 687-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $529,950 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on marketlisting id $529,950 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $529,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $529,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $529,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $529,900 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $529,900 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $529,900 Active 28 DOM
19. 2026-05-14
    status Pending 1314-char remark
20. 2026-04-29
    status Active 1314-char remark
21. 2026-04-27
    historical $4,500
22. 2026-04-20
    status Pending 1314-char remark
23. 2026-04-13
    listed $4,500
24. 2026-04-10
    listed $529,900 Active 1314-char remark
25. 2026-04-10
    historical
26. 2026-03-26
    historical $4,750
27. 2026-03-19
    price $535,000
28. 2026-03-03
    listed $539,900 Active
29. 2026-03-03
    historical
30. 2026-02-13
    price $549,900
31. 2026-01-24
    listed $4,750
32. 2026-01-18
    price $559,900
33. 2026-01-10
    historical $4,750
34. 2026-01-02
    price $565,000
35. 2026-01-02
    listed $565,000 Active
36. 2026-01-02
    historical
37. 2025-12-06
    price $4,750
38. 2025-11-17
    price $569,900
39. 2025-11-10
    listed $4,950
40. 2025-11-02
    price $579,900
41. 2025-10-19
    price $589,900
42. 2025-09-29
    listed $599,900 Active
43. 2021-10-12
    historical
44. 2021-07-22
    status Active
45. 2021-07-22
    price $523,923
46. 2021-03-30
    listed $499,923 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,262 · $688/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,291 · $691/mo
• Expected delta: +$29/yr (+$2/mo · 0.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,685
• − Property taxes: −$8,262
• − Insurance: −$2,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,194
• − Management: −$2,194
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$15,417
• Taxable loss: −$33,207
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,970
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waukee Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1930510
• Math proficiency: 80% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,580
• Composite: 70.94/100
• National rank: #245
• State rank: #14 of 289 in IA

Livability — Urbandale

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #69

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Urbandale, IA
• County: Polk County · 453,298 people
• City population: 49,196
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• Population (ZIP): 17,265
• Household income: $175,944
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 63.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,904 people
• By 2030: 127,807 · +14.2%
• By 2040: 160,576 · +43.5%
• By 2050: 194,154 · +73.5%
• By 2075: 271,895 · +143.0%
• By 2100: 326,525 · +191.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.9% · R 51.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -5.5pp · 2024: -4.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.8 2020: R+2.0 2016: R+9.6 2012: R+11.8 2008: R+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Current HPI: 199.789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed for Rent $4,500 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-06-05 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listed $529,950 DMMLS
• 2026-05-28 Relisted — DMMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — DMMLS
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — DMMLS
• 2026-04-27 Rental Removed $4,500 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-04-20 Pending — DMMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed for Rent $4,500 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $529,900 DMMLS
• 2026-03-26 Rental Removed $4,750 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $535,000 DMMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $539,900 DMMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $549,900 DMMLS
• 2026-01-24 Listed for Rent $4,750 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $559,900 DMMLS
• 2026-01-10 Rental Removed $4,750 TURBOTENANT
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $565,000 DMMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $565,000 DMMLS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $4,750 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $569,900 DMMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed for Rent $4,950 TURBOTENANT
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $579,900 DMMLS
• 2025-10-19 Price Changed $589,900 DMMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $599,900 DMMLS
• 2021-10-12 Listing Removed — DMMLS
• 2021-07-22 Relisted — DMMLS
• 2021-07-22 Price Changed $523,923 DMMLS
• 2021-03-30 Listed $499,923 DMMLS

Property tax history

+412.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,262 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.