2 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,167 sqft ·
Built 1991
· Condo
· Active
· 125 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,574/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,468
Tax + insurance
−$365
HOA
−$614
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$540
Net cashflow
$-414/mo
Annual
$-4,968/yr
Cap rate
4.52%
Cash-on-cash
-6.34%
DSCR
0.72
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$78,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $280k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-414 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (26.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (8.1% below list).
It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $207k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Sea Gate Elementary School (math 86% / reading 81%, grade A+, #60 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 703 students, 26% FRL); Pine Ridge Middle School (math 74% / reading 70%, grade A, #52 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 832 students, 31% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 27% FRL vs 55% district-wide (28 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 74% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 334 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $80k; list at $280k implies a 250% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
CashFlowRE · CFR-EPZW9J0JHZHN4Q
· Data 19 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29