28 Hillcrest Dr

Alfred, NY 14802

$189,999D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,533 sqft · Built 1951 · MultiFamily · Active · 309 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,348/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$543
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-475/mo
• Annual: $-5,694/yr
• Cap rate: 3.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.70%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-475 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (41.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (29.0% below list).
• It's been on market 309 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (41.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#110 in NY, #1,824 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Alfred-Almond Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #345 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $190k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 309 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?