28 Hillcrest Dr · Alfred, NY 14802

$189,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,533 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 309 Days on market

Built 1951 0.48 ac lot $75/sqft · 9% below area Est $210k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Two Family home walking distance to both campuses. This home could also be converted back into a single family home. Main floor there is a dining area from the front entrance, a large kitchen with newer stove and refrigerator. Living room has large window over looking the hills, and a door to the back upper deck. There is a fireplace, that has not been used in a while, so should be inspected before using. There is an nice office space or play room off the living room. The full bath also has laundry. Two Bedrooms each with closets and access to the wrap around deck. The lower apartment also has a spacious living/dining area and kitchen. There is one bedroom off the living room and the other bedroom is down the hall. Full bath with shower. There is also another room that would make a great office space.

Key facts

• Wrap around deck
• 0.48 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• DOOR TO THE BACK UPPER DECK
• FULL BATH WITH LAUNDRY
• WRAP AROUND DECK
• SPACIOUS LIVING DINING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-475 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (41.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (41.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#110 in NY, #1,824 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Alfred-Almond Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #345 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 309 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $190k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $111,428 (41.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 309 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.70%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,671
• List price: $189,999
• Delta: -9.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-6,977
• Equity at exit: $85,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $17,522
• Equity at exit: $132,147

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14802

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,348 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$464 /mo · $5,571/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,949

Max offer price $111,428

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-367	-5% $-421	+0% $-475	+5% $-528	+10% $-582
Rent	-10% $-581	-5% $-528	+0% $-475	+5% $-421	+10% $-368
Rate	-1.0pp $-379	-0.5pp $-426	base $-475	+0.5pp $-524	+1.0pp $-574

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,999 Active 309 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,999 Active 308 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,999 Active 307 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,999 Active 306 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,999 Active 305 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,999 Active 303 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,999 Active 302 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,999 Active 299 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,999 Active 298 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,999 Active 297 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,999 Active 294 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,999 Active 292 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,999 Active 291 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,999 Active 290 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,999 Active 289 DOM
16. 2025-08-13
    listed $189,999 Active 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    Two Family home walking distance to both campuses. This home could also be converted back into a single family home. Main floor there is a dining area from the front entrance, a large kitchen with newer stove and refrigerator. Living room has large window over looking the hills, and a door to the back upper deck. There is a fireplace, that has not been used in a while, so should be inspected before using. There is an nice office space or play room off the living room. The full bath also has laundry. Two Bedrooms each with closets and access to the wrap around deck. The lower apartment also has a spacious living/dining area and kitchen. There is one bedroom off the living room and the other bedroom is down the hall. Full bath with shower. There is also another room that would make a great office space.

17. 2011-10-07
    soldstatus $85,000
18. 2011-10-07
    soldstatus $85,000
19. 2003-12-01
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,571 · $464/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,571 · $464/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$5,571
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,295
• − Management: −$1,295
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$9,099
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,184
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,510/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alfred-Almond Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602700
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,682
• Composite: 44.62/100
• National rank: #2772
• State rank: #345 of 590 in NY

Livability — Alfred

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #1824

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alfred, NY
• City population: 6,118
• Population (ZIP): 4,627

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,362 people
• By 2030: 43,078 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 38,031 · -16.2%
• By 2050: 33,634 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 25,285 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 18,902 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 10% Asian 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 28.4% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.7pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+42.3 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Current HPI: 258.731
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+192.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-13 Listed $189,999 UNYREIS
• 2011-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2011-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2003-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,571 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.