11323 Sagewood Dr

Houston, TX 77089

$210,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,574 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Pending · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,870/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$478
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-102/mo
• Annual: $-1,228/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (10.9% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stuchbery El (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 596 students, 86% FRL); Thompson Int (math 30% / reading 33%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 881 students, 75% FRL); Pasadena H S (math 41% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,221 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.