11323 Sagewood Dr · Houston, TX 77089

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,574 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1964 7,148 sqft lot $133/sqft · 12% below area Est $239k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this delightful one-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, a versatile flex room, and 2 full baths. The open floor plan boasts a dining area, a cozy living room with a fireplace, and a stylish modern kitchen with tile floors and upgraded fixtures. Outside, you'll find a spacious backyard with covered front and back patios. This is your chance to put your personal stamp on this lovely property!

Key facts

• Cozy living room
• One story home
• Dining area

Tags

• ONE STORY HOME
• FLEX ROOM
• DINING AREA
• COZY LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• MODERN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stuchbery El (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 596 students, 86% FRL); Thompson Int (math 30% / reading 33%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 881 students, 75% FRL); Pasadena H S (math 41% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,221 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,006 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,541
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -11.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11223 Sageland Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-5%)	10mo	$240,000	$161	71
11607 Sagehurst Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-5%)	1mo	$204,900	$138	69
11314 Sageland Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,638 (+4%)	10mo	$169,000	$103	67
11423 Gnarlwood Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,685 (+7%)	7mo	$265,000	$157	57
11503 Burlwood Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,505 (-4%)	7mo	$258,000	$171	56
11511 Olivewood Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,432 (-9%)	9mo	$265,000	$185	54
11427 Meadow Joy Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,663 (+6%)	6mo	$249,000	$150	51
11618 Sagehollow Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+15%)	10mo	$289,000	$160	47
12743 Corning Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-9%)	5mo	$220,000	$154	46
11415 Sagehollow Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,798 (+14%)	10mo	$189,950	$106	39
11435 Meadoway Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,358 (-14%)	6mo	$199,999	$147	35
10914 Kelly Hill Ct	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,372 (-13%)	8mo	$269,000	$196	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-39,532
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-38,620
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77089

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,870 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$391 /mo · $4,691/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,000

Max offer price $191,923

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-43	+0% $-102	+5% $-162	+10% $-221
Rent	-10% $-250	-5% $-176	+0% $-102	+5% $-28	+10% $45
Rate	-1.0pp $3	-0.5pp $-49	base $-102	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11511 Grapewood Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1597	$1,800	$1.13	4d	1	0.31mi
11666 Gulf Pointe Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$2,101	$1.86	0d	26	0.55mi
17 Gulf Pointe Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,379	$1.17	45d	1	0.64mi
11816 Algonquin Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,375	$1.15	18d	1	0.65mi
11816 Algonquin Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,375	$1.15	45d	1	0.65mi
11881 Gulf Pointe Dr Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,992	$1.46	20d	1	0.66mi
11881 Gulf Pointe Dr Unit 11914 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,035	$1.49	45d	1	0.67mi
11881 Gulf Pointe Dr Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,024	$1.48	0d	1	0.67mi
11881 Gulf Pointe Dr Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,064	$1.51	12d	1	0.67mi
12055 Sabo Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	970	$2,082	$2.15	0d	16	0.71mi
11438 Brook Meadow Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,895	$1.31	23d	1	0.80mi
11144 Fuqua St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$1,959	$1.84	12d	24	1.06mi
11203 Sagehill Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1766	$1,900	$1.08	7d	1	1.09mi
10123 Clearwick St Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2029	$2,650	$1.31	45d	1	1.24mi
12601 S Green Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	808	$1,425	$1.76	45d	1	1.40mi
10819 Sagewind Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1514	$1,966	$1.30	7d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-30
   price $210,000 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   Step into this delightful one-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, a versatile flex room, and 2 full baths. The open floor plan boasts a dining area, a cozy living room with a fireplace, and a stylish modern kitchen with tile floors and upgraded fixtures. Outside, you'll find a spacious backyard with covered front and back patios. This is your chance to put your personal stamp on this lovely property!

2. 2026-04-09
   listed $235,000 Active 400-char remark

   Show marketing remark (400 chars)

   Step into this delightful one-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, a versatile flex room, and 2 full baths. The open floor plan boasts a dining area, a cozy living room with a fireplace, and a stylish modern kitchen with tile floors and upgraded fixtures. Outside, you'll find a spacious backyard with covered front and back patios. This is your chance to put your personal stamp on this lovely property!

3. 2026-04-07
   historical
4. 2026-02-16
   listed $235,000 Active
5. 2018-02-28
   soldstatus
6. 2018-02-27
   soldstatus Sold
7. 2018-02-07
   status Pending
8. 2018-01-26
   status Option Pending
9. 2018-01-05
   listed $135,000 Active
10. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,691 · $391/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,691 · $391/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$4,691
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,795
• − Management: −$1,795
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$4,763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,143
• After-tax cash flow: $-85/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasadena ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,163
• Composite: 26.15/100
• National rank: #7275
• State rank: #612 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,741
• Household income: $88,140
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1483.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 22% White 19% Asian 17% Black 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 33% Vietnamese 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -156.31%
• Current HPI: 249.5438
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+55.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2018-02-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-02-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-02-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-01-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-01-05 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,691 · -10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.