14638 E Fm 1716

Lake Cherokee, TX 75652

$264,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,651 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,377/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax + insurance: −$424
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-725/mo
• Annual: $-8,705/yr
• Cap rate: 3.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.74%
• DSCR: 0.48
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $74,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-725 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (48.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (48.0% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $137k (48.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#650 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tatum ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #194 of 826 in TX (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Rusk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rusk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.