187 Osprey Rd

Empire, GA 31014

$150,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,343/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $179/mo
• Annual: $2,144/yr
• Cap rate: 7.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.11%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (10.5% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $134k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#316 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bleckley County (rural): math 46% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #28 of 174 in GA (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bleckley County Primary School (766 students, 71% FRL); Bleckley Middle School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D+, #97 of 470 statewide, top 22%, 561 students, 52% FRL); Bleckley County High School (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #110 of 424 statewide, top 28%, 671 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 109 units permitted in Bleckley County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bleckley County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $150k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.