2814 Keating St #163

Hillcrest Heights, MD 20748

$124,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1950 · Condo · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,666/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$398
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $52/mo
• Annual: $630/yr
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.80%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($630/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in MD, #2,942 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest Heights Elementary (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #826 of 860 statewide, top 100%, 406 students, 66% FRL); Benjamin Stoddert Middle (math 0% / reading 19%, grade F, #210 of 225 statewide, top 93%, 560 students, 85% FRL); Crossland High (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #175 of 222 statewide, top 79%, 1,082 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 53% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 6843% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $125k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.5% in Hillcrest Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?