2814 Keating St #163 · Hillcrest Heights, MD 20748

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Condo public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1950 $163/sqft · 14% below area Est $145k · 14% under $398/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated end unit townhome with 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath. Stainless steel appliances and Fresh paint in the home. All new vinyl siding replaced in last 5 years. Convenient location with access to public transportation, shopping and major highways.

Key facts

• $398 HOA
• Built 1950
• Listed 79 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($630/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.5% in Hillcrest Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in MD, #2,942 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest Heights Elementary (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #826 of 860 statewide, top 100%, 406 students, 66% FRL); Benjamin Stoddert Middle (math 0% / reading 19%, grade F, #210 of 225 statewide, top 93%, 560 students, 85% FRL); Crossland High (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #175 of 222 statewide, top 79%, 1,082 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 53% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 6843% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $125k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.80%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,167
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -13.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-21,509
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-32,195
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20748

• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,666 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,906/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$398
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,600

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $88	+0% $52	+5% $17	+10% $-18
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-13	+0% $52	+5% $118	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $84	base $52	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $-13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2816 Keating St #164 Temple Hills, MD	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	26d	1	0.01mi
3840 28th Ave Hillcrest Heights, MD	2.0	1.0	768	$1,745	$2.27	1d	1	0.03mi
3827 28th Ave #23 Temple Hills, MD	2.0	1.0	768	$1,695	$2.21	5d	1	0.07mi
2772 Iverson St #81 Temple Hills, MD	2.0	1.0	768	$1,650	$2.15	1d	1	0.11mi
2900 Saint Clair Dr Temple Hills, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	765	$1,425	$1.86	20d	1	0.16mi
3846 26th Ave Temple Hills, MD	2.0	1.5	710	$1,875	$2.64	45d	1	0.22mi
3840 26th Ave Temple Hills, MD	2.0	1.0	710	$1,700	$2.39	19d	1	0.22mi
3861 26th Ave Temple Hills, MD	2.0	1.0	768	$1,700	$2.21	26d	1	0.22mi
3861 26th Ave Temple Hills, MD	2.0	1.0	768	$1,700	$2.21	7d	1	0.22mi
3841 26th Ave Temple Hills, MD	2.0	1.0	768	$1,725	$2.25	1d	1	0.25mi
2528 Iverson St Temple Hills, MD	2.0	1.0	768	$1,675	$2.18	13d	1	0.28mi
4003 25th Ave Temple Hills, MD	2.0	1.0	792	$1,795	$2.27	14d	1	0.31mi
3909 25th Ave Hillcrest Heights, MD	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	6d	1	0.33mi
3903 25th Ave Hillcrest Heights, MD	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	6d	1	0.34mi
3843 St Barnabas Rd Apt 104 Suitland, MD	2.0	2.0	998	$1,750	$1.75	7d	1	0.35mi
3827 Saint Barnabas Rd Unit T103 Suitland, MD	2.0	1.0	979	$1,800	$1.84	17d	1	0.39mi
4221 28th Ave Marlow Heights, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	698	$1,300	$1.86	45d	1	0.42mi
3807 St Barnabas Rd #104 Suitland, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,999	$2.00	45d	1	0.45mi
3851 St Barnabas Rd Apt 201 Suitland, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,295	$2.29	7d	1	0.46mi
3825 Saint Barnabas Rd Unit T-202 Suitland, MD	2.0	1.0	1034	$1,800	$1.74	45d	1	0.46mi
3827 St Barnabas Rd Unit T Suitland, MD	2.0	1.0	992	$1,600	$1.61	5d	1	0.46mi
4129 Atmore Pl Temple Hills, MD	1.0	1.0	610	$1,500	$2.46	45d	1	0.50mi
3613 Silver Park Dr Suitland, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1087	$1,895	$1.74	5d	10	0.63mi
2309 Olson St #203 Temple Hills, MD	1.0	1.0	948	$1,695	$1.79	7d	1	0.64mi
4503 Raleigh Rd Temple Hills, MD	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,895	$1.82	45d	1	0.67mi
4301 23rd Pkwy Temple Hills, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,741	$2.05	0d	17	0.68mi
4637 Dallas Pl Temple Hills, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	838	$1,519	$1.81	0d	27	0.70mi
4513 23rd Pkwy Temple Hills, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	908	$1,880	$2.07	1d	11	0.72mi
3416 Curtis Dr Suitland, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	779	$1,603	$2.06	1d	25	0.72mi
4431 23rd Pkwy Temple Hills, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$1,600	$2.06	1d	11	0.73mi
3501 Terrace Dr Hillcrest Heights, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,678	$2.10	1d	16	0.75mi
3506 Silver Park Dr Suitland, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	949	$1,944	$2.05	1d	9	0.76mi
3103 Good Hope Ave Hillcrest Heights, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	851	$2,303	$2.71	1d	13	0.89mi
3415 Parkway Terrace Dr Hillcrest Heights, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	730	$1,680	$2.30	45d	1	1.08mi
2603 Southern Ave SE Hillcrest Heights, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	646	$1,375	$2.13	3d	7	1.20mi
3009 Southern Ave SE Temple Hills, MD	3.0	1.0	909	$1,650	$1.82	45d	1	1.20mi
3400 Pearl Dr Suitland, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	851	$1,634	$1.92	0d	5	1.22mi
3001 Branch Ave Temple Hills, MD	2.0	1.0	769	$2,043	$2.66	1d	40	1.24mi
3158 Buena Vista Ter SE Unit 1 Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	800	$2,900	$3.62	26d	1	1.28mi
3111 Naylor Rd SE #301 Washington, DC	1.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	26d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $398 · $4,776/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   remarks 483-char remark
4. 2026-06-18
   price $124,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $134,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   status $134,900 Active Under Contract 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,900 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $134,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    status Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Updated end unit townhome with 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath. Stainless steel appliances and Fresh paint in the home. All new vinyl siding replaced in last 5 years. Convenient location with access to public transportation, shopping and major highways.

18. 2026-04-19
    historical Active Under Contract 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Updated end unit townhome with 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath. Stainless steel appliances and Fresh paint in the home. All new vinyl siding replaced in last 5 years. Convenient location with access to public transportation, shopping and major highways.

19. 2026-03-06
    status Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Updated end unit townhome with 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath. Stainless steel appliances and Fresh paint in the home. All new vinyl siding replaced in last 5 years. Convenient location with access to public transportation, shopping and major highways.

20. 2026-02-11
    historical 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Updated end unit townhome with 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath. Stainless steel appliances and Fresh paint in the home. All new vinyl siding replaced in last 5 years. Convenient location with access to public transportation, shopping and major highways.

21. 2026-01-20
    historical $134,900 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Updated end unit townhome with 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath. Stainless steel appliances and Fresh paint in the home. All new vinyl siding replaced in last 5 years. Convenient location with access to public transportation, shopping and major highways.

22. 2025-11-19
    historical $1,799
23. 2025-10-20
    listed $1,799
24. 2022-08-11
    historical
25. 2022-08-11
    listed $149,900 Active
26. 2020-05-13
    soldstatus $62,500
27. 2020-05-01
    soldstatus $62,500 Closed
28. 2020-03-24
    status Pending
29. 2020-03-17
    listed $60,000 Active
30. 1973-09-13
    soldstatus $18,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,906 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,906 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,906
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,600
• − Management: −$1,600
• − HOA: −$4,776
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$1,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$274
• After-tax cash flow: $903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Hillcrest Heights

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #2942

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hillcrest Heights, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 40,338
• Household income: $83,162
• Rent vs Own: 42.9% rent · 57.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1929.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% White 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.06%
• Current HPI: 307.2658
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.87%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+611.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-19 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-20 Coming Soon $134,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-19 Rental Removed $1,799 Avail
• 2025-10-20 Listed for Rent $1,799 Avail
• 2022-08-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-11 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2020-05-01 Sold (MLS) $62,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-03-24 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-03-17 Listed $60,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1973-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $18,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,906 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.