16 Kelly Dr

Washington, IN 47501

$169,900F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,480/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-12/mo
• Annual: $-139/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-139/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (12.9% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#110 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Washington Community Schools (town): math 36% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #174 of 301 in IN (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Washington Upper Elementary (math 44% / reading 43%, grade D, #90 of 330 statewide, top 27%, 361 students, 62% FRL); Washington High School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #197 of 369 statewide, top 57%, 780 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 71 units permitted in Daviess County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Daviess County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $170k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.9% in Washington — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.