9391 California Ave #81

Riverside, CA 92503

$45,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,224 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,359/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $1,601/mo
• Annual: $19,212/yr
• Cap rate: 48.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 152.48%
• DSCR: 7.78
• 1% rule: 5.24%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#337 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, commute B+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, cost of living F.
• Riverside Unified (urban): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #574 of 1,400 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jackson Elementary (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 667 students, 89% FRL); Chemawa Middle (798 students, 90% FRL); Arlington High (1,957 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 53% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Riverside Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 49.0% vs local median 3.0% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.