610 W Burnt Cedar Road Rd #20

Lake Almanor Country Club, CA 96137

$599,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,624 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$1,000
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $-788/mo
• Annual: $-9,459/yr
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $167,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-788 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $486k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (29.2% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($582k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $425k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#895 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C. Roy Carmichael Elementary (346 students, 72% FRL); Quincy Junior/Senior High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 340 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Lake Almanor Country Club — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.