610 W Burnt Cedar Road Rd #20 · Lake Almanor Country Club, CA 96137

$599,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,624 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 1996 0.41 ac lot $229/sqft · 31% below area Est $870k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in the sought-after Lake Almanor Country Club, this charming three-level cabin-style home offers the perfect blend of mountain character & comfortable living. Featuring 4 bd, 3 full bathrooms, There's plenty of space for family, guests, or a vacation retreat. Warm & inviting, the home showcases classic cabin appeal with a cozy woodstove & an additional propane stove, creating an ideal setting for year-round enjoyment. The spacious layout includes a dedicated game room perfect for entertaining or relaxing after a day on the lake. Step outside & enjoy the peaceful, wooded surroundings, along with the convenience of a detached 2-car garage. Whether you're lo

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Dedicated game room
• Cozy woodstove

Tags

• THREE-LEVEL CABIN-STYLE HOME
• COZY WOODSTOVE
• ADDITIONAL PROPANE STOVE
• DEDICATED GAME ROOM
• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Sloped, wooded lot; Paved road access; Approximately 0.41 acres; Zoned 3-R; Sloping topography; Cross street: Clifford Drive
• HOA & community: Association includes security

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Asphalt parking; Off-street parking; On-street parking; RV/boat parking and RV access; Garage door opener
• Security: Fire sprinkler system
• Utilities: Electricity available; Propane available; Sewer available; Water available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Three or more levels; Three-story
• Construction: Frame construction; Wood siding; Metal roof; Concrete perimeter and slab foundation; Completed development
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Deck; Waterfront access; View

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Other
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Forced air heating; Propane heating; Wood stove heating; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Wet bar; Vaulted ceilings; Double-pane windows; Skylights; Window treatments; Gas log fireplace; Wood-burning stove
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-788 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $486k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $425k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.2% in Lake Almanor Country Club — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#895 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: C. Roy Carmichael Elementary (346 students, 72% FRL); Quincy Junior/Senior High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 340 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 41% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($582k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $425,000 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $869,925
• List price: $599,900
• Delta: -31.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
613 Clifford Drive Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,670 (+2%)	9mo	$650,000	$243	83
767 Lassen View Drive Dr #21	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,702 (+3%)	2mo	$1,225,000	$453	75
714 Lake Ridge Road Rd	0.53mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,341 (-11%)	1mo	$679,229	$290	51
790 Lassen View Drive Dr #21	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,907 (+11%)	12mo	$855,000	$294	51
732 E Mountain Ridge Road Rd	0.55mi	4/4.0	2,954 (+13%)	2mo	$655,000	$222	48
804 Peninsula Drive Dr	0.71mi	4/3.5	2,778 (+6%)	10mo	$2,245,000	$808	47
727 E Mountain Ridge Road Rd	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,900 (+10%)	8mo	$585,000	$202	46
700 Peninsula Drive Dr	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,500 (-5%)	9mo	$960,000	$384	45
730 E Mountain Ridge Rd	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,912 (+11%)	21mo	$550,000	$189	38
833 Lassen View Dr	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,795 (+6%)	22mo	$1,850,000	$662	34
903 Clifford Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,307 (-12%)	9mo	$780,000	$338	33
850 Lassen View Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,239 (-15%)	20mo	$920,000	$411	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-27,775
• Equity at exit: $216,655

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $38,025
• Equity at exit: $297,319

Cash invested: $167,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96137

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$750 /mo · $8,998/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $-788

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,248

Max offer price $485,835

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-374	-5% $-581	+0% $-788	+5% $-996	+10% $-1,203
Rent	-10% $-1,124	-5% $-956	+0% $-788	+5% $-620	+10% $-453
Rate	-1.0pp $-486	-0.5pp $-636	base $-788	+0.5pp $-944	+1.0pp $-1,102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,975
• Closing costs: $17,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 W Burnt Cedar Rd Westwood, CA	3.0	3.0	2100	$4,250	$2.02	46d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $599,900 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $599,900 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,900 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,900 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,900 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $599,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $599,900 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $599,900 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $599,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $599,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $599,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $599,900 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $599,900 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $599,900 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $599,900 Active 27 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $599,900 Active 26 DOM
19. 2026-05-04
    listed $599,900 Active 963-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥89°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,604
• − Property taxes: −$8,998
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,080
• − Management: −$4,080
• − Depreciation: −$17,452
• Taxable loss: −$20,213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,851
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Plumas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631170
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,935
• Composite: 27.89/100
• National rank: #6870
• State rank: #306 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Almanor Country Club

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #895
• US rank: #23890

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Almanor Country Club, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,717

Population outlook (Plumas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,564 people
• By 2030: 14,014 · -10.0%
• By 2040: 11,197 · -28.1%
• By 2050: 9,069 · -41.7%
• By 2075: 5,573 · -64.2%
• By 2100: 3,392 · -78.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Plumas

• 2024 margin: R (+16.9) · D 39.9% · R 56.9% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -16.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.9 2020: R+16.7 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.38%
• Current HPI: 153.1005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $599,900 PAR