4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,155 sqft ·
Built 1962
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,913/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,065
Tax + insurance
−$221
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$402
Net cashflow
$226/mo
Annual
$2,713/yr
Cap rate
7.63%
Cash-on-cash
4.77%
DSCR
1.21
1% rule
0.94%
Cash to close
$56,840
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $203k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $226 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (5.8% below list).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $191k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#50 in IN, #3,393 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety D-.
Merrillville Community School Corporation (suburban): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #240 of 301 in IN (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Jonas E Salk Elementary School (math 33% / reading 32%, grade F, #649 of 994 statewide, top 65%, 587 students, 64% FRL); Merrillville Intermediate School (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #203 of 330 statewide, top 63%, 855 students, 71% FRL); Merrillville High School (math 19% / reading 55%, grade F, #247 of 369 statewide, top 70%, 2,042 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 50% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.7% in Merrillville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ERN2840JQYTT38
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29