440 Brushy Creek Trl

Lake Medina Shores, TX 78003

$173,500F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 2018 · Manufactured · Active · 362 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,042/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$910
• Tax + insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $-273/mo
• Annual: $-3,272/yr
• Cap rate: 4.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.74%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $48,580

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $174k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-273 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (27.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (40.0% below list).
• It's been on market 362 days — a 12% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,318 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alkek El (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 630 students, 61% FRL); Bandera Middle (math 26% / reading 40%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 555 students, 56% FRL); Bandera H S (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 713 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 735 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 120d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 362 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate: bathroom vanity — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate: kitchen countertops — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate: kitchen appliances — dated and in need of updating