440 Brushy Creek Trl · Lake Medina Shores, TX 78003

$173,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Manufactured public records · 362 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2018 Good condition 0.34 ac lot $128/sqft · 9% below area Est $190k · 9% under $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -2.9

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming singlewide mobile home nestled on over 0.3 acres, spread across three lots. Step inside to discover textured walls, high ceilings, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. The spacious primary bedroom offers a peaceful retreat with a private ensuite full bathroom and a large walk-in closet. Designed with a split floor plan, this home provides added privacy by separating the primary suite from the second and third bedrooms. Make laundry a breeze by utilizing the separate designated laundry room for added organization. Enjoy the serenity of country roads and the charm of small-town living, all while being less than 10 miles from downtown Bandera. The Lake Medina Shores HOA enhances your lifestyle with access to a neighborhood pool and Medina Lake. Whether you're looking for an investment property or a full-time residence, this gem checks all the boxes. Don't miss your chance to see it today!

Key facts

• Textured walls
• Three lots
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• OVER 0.3 ACRES
• THREE LOTS
• TEXTURED WALLS
• HIGH CEILINGS
• PRIVATE ENSUITE FULL BATHROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $174k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-241 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (37.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (37.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,318 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alkek El (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 630 students, 61% FRL); Bandera Middle (math 26% / reading 40%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 555 students, 56% FRL); Bandera H S (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 713 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 608 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 362 days — a 12% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $108,173 (37.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 362 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.95%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,000
• List price: $173,500
• Delta: -8.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
380 Brushy Crk	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-24%)	7mo	$135,000	$130	66
721 Tejas Trl	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,088 (-20%)	4mo	$150,000	$138	62
5943 Whartons Dock Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-4%)	15mo	$190,000	$146	58
220 Blackfoot Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+13%)	15mo	$175,000	$114	50
155 Cedar Hill Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-11%)	15mo	$114,900	$94	49
2045 Rio Ranchero	0.96mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+11%)	1mo	$250,000	$165	45
352 Longhorn	1.40mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-11%)	3mo	$259,000	$213	45
1000 Lakeshore	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+24%)	0mo	$230,000	$137	43
701 Lakeshore Ln	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-11%)	14mo	$99,000	$81	35
1316 Lakeshore Dr	1.18mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-15%)	8mo	$300,000	$260	33
363 Iroquois Trl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-15%)	22mo	$89,000	$77	32
2021 Rio Ranchero	0.99mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+15%)	22mo	$389,900	$249	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-43,506
• Equity at exit: $25,869

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-57,834
• Equity at exit: $15,001

Cash invested: $48,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $175,000 ($116/sqft)
• Median days on market: 363 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78003

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 608
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,082 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$910
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,264/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$8
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,387

Max offer price $130,941

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-143	-5% $-192	+0% $-241	+5% $-290	+10% $-339
Rent	-10% $-326	-5% $-284	+0% $-241	+5% $-198	+10% $-155
Rate	-1.0pp $-154	-0.5pp $-197	base $-241	+0.5pp $-286	+1.0pp $-332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,375
• Closing costs: $5,205
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
241 Brushy Creek Trl Bandera, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,495	$1.25	56d	1	0.16mi
551 Oak Lawn Dr Unit 2 Bandera, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,150	$0.96	28d	1	0.55mi
149 Vint Bonner Dr Unit 149V Bandera, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,150	$0.92	73d	1	0.72mi
1110 Grandview Cir Bandera, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	93d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail $8/mo · $96/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $173,500 Active 362 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $173,500 Active 360 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $173,500 Active 357 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $173,500 Active 356 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $173,500 Active 355 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $173,500 Active 354 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $173,500 Active 353 DOM
8. 2026-03-16
   price $173,500 922-char remark

   Show marketing remark (922 chars)

   Welcome to this charming singlewide mobile home nestled on over 0.3 acres, spread across three lots. Step inside to discover textured walls, high ceilings, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. The spacious primary bedroom offers a peaceful retreat with a private ensuite full bathroom and a large walk-in closet. Designed with a split floor plan, this home provides added privacy by separating the primary suite from the second and third bedrooms. Make laundry a breeze by utilizing the separate designated laundry room for added organization. Enjoy the serenity of country roads and the charm of small-town living, all while being less than 10 miles from downtown Bandera. The Lake Medina Shores HOA enhances your lifestyle with access to a neighborhood pool and Medina Lake. Whether you're looking for an investment property or a full-time residence, this gem checks all the boxes. Don't miss your chance to see it today!

9. 2025-07-24
   price $176,500 922-char remark

   Show marketing remark (922 chars)

   Welcome to this charming singlewide mobile home nestled on over 0.3 acres, spread across three lots. Step inside to discover textured walls, high ceilings, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. The spacious primary bedroom offers a peaceful retreat with a private ensuite full bathroom and a large walk-in closet. Designed with a split floor plan, this home provides added privacy by separating the primary suite from the second and third bedrooms. Make laundry a breeze by utilizing the separate designated laundry room for added organization. Enjoy the serenity of country roads and the charm of small-town living, all while being less than 10 miles from downtown Bandera. The Lake Medina Shores HOA enhances your lifestyle with access to a neighborhood pool and Medina Lake. Whether you're looking for an investment property or a full-time residence, this gem checks all the boxes. Don't miss your chance to see it today!

10. 2025-06-12
    listed $185,000 New 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    Welcome to this charming singlewide mobile home nestled on over 0.3 acres, spread across three lots. Step inside to discover textured walls, high ceilings, and thoughtful upgrades throughout. The spacious primary bedroom offers a peaceful retreat with a private ensuite full bathroom and a large walk-in closet. Designed with a split floor plan, this home provides added privacy by separating the primary suite from the second and third bedrooms. Make laundry a breeze by utilizing the separate designated laundry room for added organization. Enjoy the serenity of country roads and the charm of small-town living, all while being less than 10 miles from downtown Bandera. The Lake Medina Shores HOA enhances your lifestyle with access to a neighborhood pool and Medina Lake. Whether you're looking for an investment property or a full-time residence, this gem checks all the boxes. Don't miss your chance to see it today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,175 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,911/yr (+$159/mo · 151.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,719
• − Property taxes: −$1,264
• − Insurance: −$868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,038
• − Management: −$1,038
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,047
• Taxable loss: −$6,090
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,462
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,800–$20,400 screening

This charming singlewide mobile home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to modernize the kitchen and bathroom. The home is move-in ready with a good curb appeal and a split floor plan for added privacy.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate bathroom vanity — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate kitchen appliances — dated and in need of updating

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both update bathroom vanity and fixtures — modernizing the bathroom will appeal to both buyers and renters ↑
• Both install hardwood or tile flooring — hardwood or tile flooring will increase the home's value and appeal to a wider range of buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alkek El F TX #2,208/4,322 Nat'l #24,614/41,679 Middle Bandera Middle F TX #930/1,662 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Bandera H S F TX #1,002/1,632 Nat'l #10,121/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bandera ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809360
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,771
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6194
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Lake Medina Shores

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1318
• US rank: #22715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Medina Shores, TX
• County: Bandera · 22,614 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,594
• Household income: $54,500
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

---

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,614 people
• By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.80%
• Current HPI: 215.0687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $173,500 LERA
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $176,500 LERA
• 2025-06-12 Listed $185,000 LERA

Property tax history

-6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,264 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.