3632 Buffalo Dr

Harrisonburg, VA 22802

$235,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,929 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Pending · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,863/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $53/mo
• Annual: $640/yr
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($640/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (20.7% below list).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#24 in VA, #666 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Rockingham County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #77 of 131 in VA (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 683 units permitted in Rockingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockingham County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $235k implies a 213% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.8% in Harrisonburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.