3632 Buffalo Dr · Harrisonburg, VA 22802

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,929 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1981 1.22 ac lot $122/sqft · 39% below area Est $451k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors!! Welcome to Buffalo Drive, this spacious home offers 3 bedrooms and two and half bathrooms. The lower level of the home hosts the half bath and option for an additional bedroom. The lower level also has a large additional living room, storage areas, laundry and garage. The main level has an open floor plan which includes the kitchen, dining and living rooms, an oversized master bedroom, 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. From the living room step out onto the large deck with gorgeous western views. The home is situated on 1.2 acres; there is a dog kennel on the property that could be used as a kennel or repurposed with lots of options. Schedule your showing today! PROPERTY WILL NOT QUALIFY FOR MOST FINANCING

Key facts

• Large deck
• Open floor plan
• Storage areas

Tags

• LARGE DECK
• GORGEOUS WESTERN VIEWS
• DOG KENNEL
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• STORAGE AREAS
• ADDITIONAL LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($640/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.8% in Harrisonburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#24 in VA, #666 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Rockingham County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #77 of 131 in VA (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 683 units permitted in Rockingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockingham County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $235k implies a 213% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $186,300 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $451,311
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -47.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4320 Wiltshire St	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,915 (-1%)	1mo	$439,500	$230	62
4060 Buck Run Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,010 (+4%)	12mo	$470,000	$234	60
4160 Romney Ct	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,928 (-0%)	16mo	$429,900	$223	44
4327 Wiltshire St	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,764 (-9%)	18mo	$375,000	$213	40
181 Suffolk Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,008 (+4%)	19mo	$405,000	$202	40
4245 Merino Ln	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,783 (-8%)	15mo	$435,000	$244	37
4165 Romney Ct	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-12%)	23mo	$429,000	$252	22
4350 Cotswold Ct	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,200 (+14%)	24mo	$445,000	$202	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-29,288
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,375
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22802

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,863 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,058/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,796

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Cedar Point Ln Rockingham, VA	3.0	2.5	1456	$1,650	$1.13	44d	1	0.59mi
173 Cedar Point Ln Rockingham, VA	3.0	2.5	1456	$1,750	$1.20	44d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Investors!! Welcome to Buffalo Drive, this spacious home offers 3 bedrooms and two and half bathrooms. The lower level of the home hosts the half bath and option for an additional bedroom. The lower level also has a large additional living room, storage areas, laundry and garage. The main level has an open floor plan which includes the kitchen, dining and living rooms, an oversized master bedroom, 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. From the living room step out onto the large deck with gorgeous western views. The home is situated on 1.2 acres; there is a dog kennel on the property that could be used as a kennel or repurposed with lots of options. Schedule your showing today! PROPERTY WILL NOT QUALIFY FOR MOST FINANCING

2. 2026-04-14
   price $235,000 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Investors!! Welcome to Buffalo Drive, this spacious home offers 3 bedrooms and two and half bathrooms. The lower level of the home hosts the half bath and option for an additional bedroom. The lower level also has a large additional living room, storage areas, laundry and garage. The main level has an open floor plan which includes the kitchen, dining and living rooms, an oversized master bedroom, 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. From the living room step out onto the large deck with gorgeous western views. The home is situated on 1.2 acres; there is a dog kennel on the property that could be used as a kennel or repurposed with lots of options. Schedule your showing today! PROPERTY WILL NOT QUALIFY FOR MOST FINANCING

3. 2026-01-23
   price $299,900 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Investors!! Welcome to Buffalo Drive, this spacious home offers 3 bedrooms and two and half bathrooms. The lower level of the home hosts the half bath and option for an additional bedroom. The lower level also has a large additional living room, storage areas, laundry and garage. The main level has an open floor plan which includes the kitchen, dining and living rooms, an oversized master bedroom, 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. From the living room step out onto the large deck with gorgeous western views. The home is situated on 1.2 acres; there is a dog kennel on the property that could be used as a kennel or repurposed with lots of options. Schedule your showing today! PROPERTY WILL NOT QUALIFY FOR MOST FINANCING

4. 2026-01-22
   price $290,900 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Investors!! Welcome to Buffalo Drive, this spacious home offers 3 bedrooms and two and half bathrooms. The lower level of the home hosts the half bath and option for an additional bedroom. The lower level also has a large additional living room, storage areas, laundry and garage. The main level has an open floor plan which includes the kitchen, dining and living rooms, an oversized master bedroom, 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. From the living room step out onto the large deck with gorgeous western views. The home is situated on 1.2 acres; there is a dog kennel on the property that could be used as a kennel or repurposed with lots of options. Schedule your showing today! PROPERTY WILL NOT QUALIFY FOR MOST FINANCING

5. 2025-12-20
   listed $304,900 Active 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Investors!! Welcome to Buffalo Drive, this spacious home offers 3 bedrooms and two and half bathrooms. The lower level of the home hosts the half bath and option for an additional bedroom. The lower level also has a large additional living room, storage areas, laundry and garage. The main level has an open floor plan which includes the kitchen, dining and living rooms, an oversized master bedroom, 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. From the living room step out onto the large deck with gorgeous western views. The home is situated on 1.2 acres; there is a dog kennel on the property that could be used as a kennel or repurposed with lots of options. Schedule your showing today! PROPERTY WILL NOT QUALIFY FOR MOST FINANCING

6. 1996-05-08
   soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$869/yr (+$72/mo · 82.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,058
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,788
• − Management: −$1,788
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,454
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$829
• After-tax cash flow: $1,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockingham County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103390
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,178
• Composite: 47.58/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #77 of 131 in VA

Livability — Harrisonburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #666

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harrisonburg City · 70,357 people
• City population: 70,357
• Metro: Harrisonburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 30,374
• Household income: $66,423
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 943.0

Population outlook (Rockingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,435 people
• By 2030: 85,223 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 87,667 · +5.1%
• By 2050: 88,550 · +6.1%
• By 2075: 90,331 · +8.3%
• By 2100: 85,122 · +2.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 14% Black 6% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 30.9% · R 68.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -36.0pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+43.5 2012: R+40.6 2008: R+36.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -196.55%
• Current HPI: 172.4583
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.85%
• Metro: Harrisonburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+213.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HRAR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $235,000 HRAR
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $299,900 HRAR
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $290,900 HRAR
• 2025-12-20 Listed $304,900 HRAR
• 1996-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,058 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.