31191 New Kirk Rd

Warren, OR 97056

$225,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,074 sqft · Built 1945 · Other · Pending · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,967/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$318
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $56/mo
• Annual: $678/yr
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.08%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($678/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (12.6% below list).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#314 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Scappoose SD 1J (town): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #69 of 183 in OR (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grant Watts Elementary School (reading 54%, 346 students, 38% FRL); Otto Petersen Elementary School (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #86 of 128 statewide, top 72%, 412 students, 31% FRL); Scappoose High School (656 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Scappoose SD 1J average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $225k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.