31191 New Kirk Rd · Warren, OR 97056

$225,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,074 sqft · Other public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1945 3.35 ac lot $209/sqft · 12% below area Est $359k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two bedroom, one bathroom home is on 3.5 private acres just waiting for you to make it your own. The home is a fixer, but it has a metal roof and a fireplace. There is plenty of room to park an RV and your cars in the driveway. The land is both level and sloped. The value is in the land. Home may be re-habable, or, you can build your own dream house? With the well already dug, septic and electricity at the property, everything is ready for you to create your own hideaway! Make offers subject to interior inspection. House and property to be sold as is, Seller to do no repairs.

Key facts

• Private acres
• Well already dug
• Metal roof

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• METAL ROOF
• FIREPLACE
• ROOM TO PARK RV
• LEVEL AND SLOPED LAND
• WELL ALREADY DUG

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($678/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#314 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Scappoose SD 1J (town): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #69 of 183 in OR (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Columbia County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $225k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $196,709 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.08%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,204
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -37.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-32,869
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-24,014
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97056

• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,686/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,896

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $120	+0% $56	+5% $-7	+10% $-71
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $-21	+0% $56	+5% $134	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $114	base $56	+0.5pp $-2	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $225,000 Pending 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $225,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $225,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   price $225,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,900 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-04-10
    price $249,900 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    This two bedroom, one bathroom home is on 3.5 private acres just waiting for you to make it your own. The home is a fixer, but it has a metal roof and a fireplace. There is plenty of room to park an RV and your cars in the driveway. The land is both level and sloped. The value is in the land. Home may be re-habable, or, you can build your own dream house? With the well already dug, septic and electricity at the property, everything is ready for you to create your own hideaway! Make offers subject to interior inspection. House and property to be sold as is, Seller to do no repairs.

11. 2026-03-06
    listed $299,900 Active 587-char remark

    Show marketing remark (587 chars)

    This two bedroom, one bathroom home is on 3.5 private acres just waiting for you to make it your own. The home is a fixer, but it has a metal roof and a fireplace. There is plenty of room to park an RV and your cars in the driveway. The land is both level and sloped. The value is in the land. Home may be re-habable, or, you can build your own dream house? With the well already dug, septic and electricity at the property, everything is ready for you to create your own hideaway! Make offers subject to interior inspection. House and property to be sold as is, Seller to do no repairs.

12. 1997-09-26
    soldstatus $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,686 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,686 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,686
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$752
• After-tax cash flow: $1,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scappoose SD 1J
• NCES district ID: 4110980
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $61,899
• Composite: 41.18/100
• National rank: #7411
• State rank: #69 of 183 in OR

Livability — Warren

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #21684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,794

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,620 people
• By 2030: 48,957 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 46,860 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 44,383 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 39,333 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 34,038 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: R (+13.9) · D 41.4% · R 55.3% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.9 2020: R+10.3 2016: R+12.0 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.25%
• Current HPI: 295.5156
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+108.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $249,900 RMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $299,900 RMLS
• 1997-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,686 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.