101 Post Way

Tubac, AZ 85646

$245,000D

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,047 sqft · Built 2006 · Townhouse · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,275/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$299
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-52/mo
• Annual: $-624/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-624/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (7.1% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-348 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#60 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Cayetano Elementary School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #810 of 1,109 statewide, top 73%, 393 students, 69% FRL); Coatimundi Middle School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #109 of 218 statewide, top 51%, 473 students, 69% FRL); Rio Rico High School (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #252 of 381 statewide, top 67%, 1,414 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Tubac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.