101 Post Way · Tubac, AZ 85646

$245,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,047 sqft · Townhouse · 19 Days on market

Built 2006 1,750 sqft lot Est $248k · at est. $299/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cheerful, open and bright 1 bedroom, 2 full baths, with a den (complete with built in Murphy bed and closet). This single level end unit home is one of a kind! Beautiful interior finishes, upgraded appliances and great furniture throughout. A warm and cozy kiva gas fireplace and gas BBQ complete the wonderful decorated courtyard. Approved for satellite TV. Guest parking adjoins the home.

Key facts

• Custom murphy bed
• Office system
• Pool

Tags

• COURTYARD-STYLE OUTDOOR SPACE
• KIVA-STYLE FIREPLACE
• CUSTOM MURPHY BED
• OFFICE SYSTEM
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; HOA amenities include pool, spa/hot tub, park, recreation room, and fitness center; HOA responsible for street maintenance and exterior maintenance of unit

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking (1 space); Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Water provided by a water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Townhouse; One level; Level (accessible); Faces west
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Built-up roof; Living area approximately 1,047
• Exterior features: Patio; Fencing: block with stucco finish; Borders common area; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms: (details not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning (heat pump)
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); Two fireplaces (gas) — located in the great room and on the patio; Pre-wired for satellite dish
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-624/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.5% in Tubac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#60 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Cayetano Elementary School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #810 of 1,109 statewide, top 73%, 393 students, 69% FRL); Coatimundi Middle School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #109 of 218 statewide, top 51%, 473 students, 69% FRL); Rio Rico High School (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #252 of 381 statewide, top 67%, 1,414 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-348 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,516 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,139
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
604 Post Way	0.07mi	1/2.0	1,052 (+0%)	3mo	$215,000	$204	94
109 Post Way	0.02mi	1/2.0	1,008 (-4%)	1mo	$197,000	$195	92
110 Post Way	0.02mi	1/2.0	1,008 (-4%)	2mo	$239,000	$237	91
303 Post Way	0.02mi	1/2.0	1,047 (0%)	12mo	$241,000	$230	88
1004 Lombard Way	0.15mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,046 (-0%)	1mo	$255,000	$244	87
410 Post Way	0.07mi	1/2.0	1,008 (-4%)	11mo	$260,000	$258	81
1109 Lombard Way	0.13mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,106 (+6%)	2mo	$225,000	$203	78
1504 Golden Gate Way	0.21mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,110 (+6%)	3mo	$215,000	$194	73
308 Post Way	0.02mi	1/1.5	899 (-14%)	1mo	$215,000	$239	72
209 Post Way	0.07mi	1/1.5	899 (-14%)	0mo	$245,000	$273	71
1306 Golden Gate Way	0.21mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,093 (+4%)	14mo	$290,000	$265	66
1503 Golden Gate Way	0.21mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,110 (+6%)	12mo	$262,500	$236	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-11,980
• Equity at exit: $69,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $16,143
• Equity at exit: $82,060

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85646

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,962/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$299
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,341

Max offer price $235,807

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $17	+0% $-52	+5% $-121	+10% $-191
Rent	-10% $-232	-5% $-142	+0% $-52	+5% $38	+10% $128
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $10	base $-52	+0.5pp $-116	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $299 · $3,588/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $245,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,962 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,962 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,962
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,184
• − Management: −$2,184
• − HOA: −$3,588
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,126
• After-tax cash flow: $502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tubac

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #10219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tubac, AZ
• City population: 1,280
• Population (ZIP): 1,280

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.14%
• Current HPI: 298.5755
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $245,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-18 Listed $290,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-04-18 Sold (MLS) $290,000 MLSSAZ
• 2018-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-04 Sold (MLS) $135,000 MLSSAZ
• 2018-10-17 Listed $150,000 MLSSAZ
• 2017-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-28 Sold (MLS) $130,000 MLSSAZ
• 2016-12-09 Listed $134,500 MLSSAZ
• 2015-08-02 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2015-03-16 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2015-02-02 Listed $164,900 MLSSAZ
• 2015-02-02 Listed $164,900 MLSSAZ
• 2009-10-29 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2009-10-17 Listed $80,000 MLSSAZ
• 2009-04-29 Listed $80,000 MLSSAZ
• 2009-04-29 Listed $224,900 MLSSAZ
• 2009-01-31 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2008-02-18 Listed $249,000 MLSSAZ
• 2006-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $251,890 Public Records
• 2006-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $251,890 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,962 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.