9 Caernarvon St

Fair Haven, VT 05743

$129,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,952 sqft · Built 1921 · SingleFamily · Pending · 249 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,416/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $195/mo
• Annual: $2,343/yr
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.49%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#31 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Rutland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rutland County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.