9 Caernarvon St · Fair Haven, VT 05743

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,952 sqft · SingleFamily · 249 Days on market

Built 1921 10,454 sqft lot Est $258k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3 bedrooms with one on the first floor, 2 full baths, one for each level. Nice flowing floor plan, many original charming original characteristics, hardwood floors, marble fireplace. This home needs some tlc, but is livable and would be be ideal for someone who can do the work and live there too. Nice private back yard, close to town amenities and schools. Side porch and front porch, private back yard. Why pay rent. So much potential. Priced for the condition.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Private back yard
• Front porch

Tags

• PRIVATE BACK YARD
• SIDE PORCH
• FRONT PORCH
• CLOSE TO TOWN AMENITIES
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Public water on site; Public sewer on site; 200 Amp electrical service with circuit breakers; High-speed internet available; Cable and telephone available
• Home design: Colonial/Victorian style; Existing structure (built in 1921)
• Construction: Timber and wood frame construction; Clapboard, vinyl exterior and wood siding; Slate roof; Built in 1921
• Exterior features: City lot with sidewalks; Near shopping; Gravel driveway; Paved, publicly maintained road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first level
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the first level; Two bedrooms on the second level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One 3/4 bathroom on the second level
• Heating & cooling: Oil heat; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Wood stove
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Interior access to unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#31 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Rutland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rutland County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.49%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,664
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Grape St	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,952 (0%)	8mo	$191,000	$98	80
41 Caernarvon St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,845 (-6%)	3mo	$249,000	$135	79
150 N Main St	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,088 (+7%)	1mo	$90,300	$43	78
122 N Main St	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,878 (-4%)	14mo	$75,000	$40	78
8 Third St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,818 (-7%)	4mo	$240,000	$132	72
41 Fourth St	0.34mi	3/2.0	2,065 (+6%)	17mo	$303,000	$147	60
416 River St	0.55mi	3/3.0	1,775 (-9%)	1mo	$380,000	$214	54
35 Lewis Ln	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,693 (-13%)	2mo	$305,000	$180	47
9 Pleasant St	0.74mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,098 (+8%)	8mo	$259,000	$123	39
28 S Main St	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,738 (-11%)	21mo	$180,000	$104	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $82,731
• Equity at exit: $116,213

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.48×
• Total profit: $233,934
• Equity at exit: $250,619

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05743

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,416 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,319/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,169

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-29
   status Active
3. 2026-03-22
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-16
   price $129,000
5. 2025-11-11
   status Active
6. 2025-11-05
   historical Active with Contract
7. 2025-10-26
   price $134,000
8. 2025-09-07
   price $149,000
9. 2025-08-07
   listed $159,000 Active
10. 2005-02-02
    soldstatus $92,000
11. 1998-03-31
    soldstatus $53,000
12. 1991-06-20
    soldstatus $86,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,319 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,385 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$66/yr (+$6/mo · 2.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$2,319
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,359
• − Management: −$1,359
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$80
• After-tax cash flow: $2,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Fair Haven

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #7050

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fair Haven, VT
• Population (ZIP): 4,144

Population outlook (Rutland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,307 people
• By 2030: 52,364 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 45,751 · -17.3%
• By 2050: 39,627 · -28.4%
• By 2075: 29,080 · -47.4%
• By 2100: 20,673 · -62.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rutland

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.3) · D 51.3% · R 46.0% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.3pp toward R · 2008: 24.6pp · 2024: 5.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.3 2020: D+10.5 2016: D+4.2 2012: D+22.0 2008: D+24.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.19%
• Current HPI: 289.3746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-29 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-22 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $129,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-11 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-05 Contingent — PrimeMLS
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $134,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-07 Price Changed $149,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $159,000 PrimeMLS
• 2005-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 1998-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1991-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,319 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.