133 Dowling Rd

Geistown, PA 15904

$139,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Built 1938 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,098/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-12/mo
• Annual: $-149/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-149/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (21.5% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $110k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#332 in PA, #2,915 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Richland SD (suburban): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #54 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $140k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.