133 Dowling Rd · Geistown, PA 15904

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1938 0.43 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Easy one story living in this well kept two bedroom ranch. Oak floors , kitchen updated, oversize lot, single garage and more!

Key facts

• Integral garage
• Partially fenced
• Oversized lot

Tags

• INTEGRAL GARAGE
• OVERSIZED LOT
• PARTIALLY FENCED
• LARGE SHED
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• MOVE IN READY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with 1 parking space; Additional parking with crushed rock
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (sewer available); Natural gas
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Shingle roof; Full basement
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Corner lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Master bedroom located on the main level; Full, unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-149/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#332 in PA, #2,915 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Richland SD (suburban): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #54 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $140k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,767 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.38%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-23,498
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-21,632
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15904

• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,052/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,113

Max offer price $137,705

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $139,900 Active
3. 2010-06-16
   soldstatus $72,000 126-char remark

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   Easy one story living in this well kept two bedroom ranch. Oak floors , kitchen updated, oversize lot, single garage and more!

4. 2010-06-16
   soldstatus $72,000

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   Easy one story living in this well kept two bedroom ranch. Oak floors , kitchen updated, oversize lot, single garage and more!

5. 2010-04-10
   listed $74,900 126-char remark

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   Easy one story living in this well kept two bedroom ranch. Oak floors , kitchen updated, oversize lot, single garage and more!

6. 2004-10-14
   soldstatus $72,000 40-char remark

   Show marketing remark (40 chars)

   two bedroom brick ranch on 101 x 185 lot

7. 2004-10-14
   soldstatus $72,000

   Show marketing remark (40 chars)

   two bedroom brick ranch on 101 x 185 lot

8. 2004-07-21
   listed $74,900 40-char remark

   Show marketing remark (40 chars)

   two bedroom brick ranch on 101 x 185 lot

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,052 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$579/yr (+$48/mo · 55.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,052
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,054
• − Management: −$1,054
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,593
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$622
• After-tax cash flow: $473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richland SD
• NCES district ID: 4220250
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,705
• Composite: 54.72/100
• National rank: #1322
• State rank: #54 of 539 in PA

Livability — Geistown

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #2915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,283

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.96%
• Current HPI: 151.6715
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+86.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — CSMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $139,900 CSMLS
• 2010-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-16 Sold (MLS) $72,000 CSMLS
• 2010-04-10 Listed $74,900 CSMLS
• 2004-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-14 Sold (MLS) $72,000 CSMLS
• 2004-07-21 Listed $74,900 CSMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,052 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.