9 Swan Creek Ct

Water Mill, NY 11976

$1,875,000A-

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,188 sqft · Built 1994 · Other · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $44,382/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,833
• Tax + insurance: −$3,125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$9,320
• Net cashflow: $22,104/mo
• Annual: $265,244/yr
• Cap rate: 20.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.52%
• DSCR: 3.25
• 1% rule: 2.37%
• Cash to close: $525,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath other listed at $1.88M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22k ($265k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($44k rent vs $1.88M).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $175k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $162k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $1.16M; list at $1.88M implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $525k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$280k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $44,382/mo this rent would consume 295% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.