9 Swan Creek Ct · Water Mill, NY 11976

$1,875,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,188 sqft · Other public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1994

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The condominium community consists of 30 homes across 3 courts, completely upgraded over the last two years: new roofs, new skylights, a heated pool that looks like something from a design magazine, two lighted tennis courts, and a dock for kayaks, paddleboards, and power boats. What you will not do here is spend a moment waiting for a landscaper or pool maintenance company. The community takes care of the property. That is, frankly, the entire point. Three bedrooms, 2.5 baths, on two levels. Viking range. Miele dishwasher. GE Monogram microwave. Built-in refrigerator. Crown moldings. Central vacuum. The primary suite has its own fireplace, en-suite bath, and private balcony. Sliding glass

Key facts

• Dock for kayaks
• Heated pool
• Composite deck

Tags

• HEATED POOL
• LIGHTED TENNIS COURTS
• DOCK FOR KAYAKS
• COMPOSITE DECK
• WI-FI CONTROLLED HEATING
• MASTER WATER SHUTOFF VALVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath other listed at $1.88M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22k ($265k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($44k rent vs $1.88M).
• Cap rate 20.4% vs local median 10.6% in Water Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $44,382/mo this rent would consume 295% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $175k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $162k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $525k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$280k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $1.16M; list at $1.88M implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,875,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.52%
• DSCR: 3.25
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $2,491,773
• Equity at exit: $1,505,729

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.1%
• Equity multiple: 13.92×
• Total profit: $6,782,414
• Equity at exit: $3,069,858

Cash invested: $525,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $44,382 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,833
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,344 /mo · $28,125/yr
• Insurance: −$781
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$9,320
• Net cashflow: $22,104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $16,402

Max offer price $1,875,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23,399	-5% $22,752	+0% $22,104	+5% $21,456	+10% $20,808
Rent	-10% $18,598	-5% $20,351	+0% $22,104	+5% $23,857	+10% $25,610
Rate	-1.0pp $23,048	-0.5pp $22,581	base $22,104	+0.5pp $21,618	+1.0pp $21,124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $468,750
• Closing costs: $56,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,875,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $1,875,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $532,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$105,029
• − Property taxes: −$28,125
• − Insurance: −$9,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$42,606
• − Management: −$42,606
• − Depreciation: −$54,545
• Taxable income: $250,291
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$60,070
• After-tax cash flow: $205,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+546.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $1,875,000 FSBO.com
• 2013-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $1,160,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $950,000 Public Records
• 2000-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $462,000 Public Records
• 1986-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,332 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.