661- #73 Nubbin Ridge Rd

Midway, AR 72642

$45,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $887/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $384/mo
• Annual: $4,604/yr
• Cap rate: 16.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.82%
• DSCR: 2.59
• 1% rule: 1.93%
• Cash to close: $12,852

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $46k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($887 rent vs $46k).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $42k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($317 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#139 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mountain Home School District (town): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #40 of 238 in AR (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Baxter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baxter County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 2.5% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: Siding — Weathered appearance
• Moderate: Exterior paint — Needs touch-up