661- #73 Nubbin Ridge Rd · Midway, AR 72642

$45,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 106 Days on market

Fair condition $40/sqft · 53% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Retirement community park located in beautiful Lakeview in Bull Shoals Lake area. This 2009 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home features open concept living with all luxury vinyl flooring throughout, lots of kitchen cabinets, Stainless Steel range, dishwasher and washer and dryer hookups, enjoy update bathrooms with all neutral colors. There are no neighbors located behind you, just lovely wooded views. Enjoy the tasteful color scheme and roomy floorplan.

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Dishwasher
• Listed 105 days

Tags

• LAKEVIEW IN BULL SHOALS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• LOTS OF KITCHEN CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL RANGE
• DISHWASHER
• WASHER AND DRYER HOOKUPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $46k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($887 rent vs $46k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 2.5% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#139 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mountain Home School District (town): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #40 of 238 in AR (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Baxter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($317 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Baxter County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,769 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.82%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $29,950
• List price: $45,900
• Delta: 53.26%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
661- #17 Nubbin Ridge Rd	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-12%)	7mo	$55,000	$55	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $49,449
• Equity at exit: $41,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.84×
• Total profit: $126,428
• Equity at exit: $89,174

Cash invested: $12,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72642

• Home prices YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $887 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$241
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$57 /mo · $688/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$186
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $402

Max offer price $45,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $415	-5% $400	+0% $384	+5% $368	+10% $352
Rent	-10% $314	-5% $349	+0% $384	+5% $419	+10% $454
Rate	-1.0pp $407	-0.5pp $395	base $384	+0.5pp $372	+1.0pp $360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,475
• Closing costs: $1,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,900 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,900 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $45,900 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-03-03
    listed $49,900 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Retirement community park located in beautiful Lakeview in Bull Shoals Lake area. This 2009 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home features open concept living with all luxury vinyl flooring throughout, lots of kitchen cabinets, Stainless Steel range, dishwasher and washer and dryer hookups, enjoy update bathrooms with all neutral colors. There are no neighbors located behind you, just lovely wooded views. Enjoy the tasteful color scheme and roomy floorplan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,571
• − Property taxes: −$688
• − Insurance: −$230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$852
• − Management: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$1,335
• Taxable income: $4,119
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$988
• After-tax cash flow: $3,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, particularly to the exterior and landscaping, to improve its overall condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Siding — Weathered appearance
• Moderate Exterior paint — Needs touch-up

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace siding — Improves appearance and value
• Both Replace flooring — Freshens up the interior and improves resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Siding · Weathered appearance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Exterior paint · Needs touch-up	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$6,000–30,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace siding — Improves appearance and value ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Freshens up the interior and improves resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain Home School District
• NCES district ID: 0500043
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,966
• Composite: 37.4/100
• National rank: #4424
• State rank: #40 of 238 in AR

Livability — Midway

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #139
• US rank: #12379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,422
• Population (ZIP): 1,724

Population outlook (Baxter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,886 people
• By 2030: 39,226 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 37,810 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 36,287 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 32,965 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 28,002 · -29.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baxter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.9) · D 20.7% · R 77.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.3pp toward R · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -56.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.9 2020: R+53.3 2016: R+53.6 2012: R+44.0 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.66%
• Current HPI: 237.0425
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $49,900 MHMLS