16 bd · 6.0 ba ·
9,999 sqft ·
Built —
· MultiFamily
· Under Contract
· 53 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$9,964/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,720
Tax + insurance
−$1,500
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,092
Net cashflow
$1,652/mo
Annual
$19,822/yr
Cap rate
8.50%
Cash-on-cash
7.87%
DSCR
1.35
1% rule
1.11%
Cash to close
$252,000
Investor read
This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $900k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive. Per door: $413/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $900k).
It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($873k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $873k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $33k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#189 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A, housing A-; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, cost of living D-.
East Orange School District (suburban): math 6% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #444 of 472 in NJ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Langston Hughes Elementary School (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,192 of 1,303 statewide, top 92%, 551 students, 67% FRL); John L. Costley Middle School (math 3% / reading 31%, grade F, #409 of 431 statewide, top 95%, 333 students, 59% FRL); East Orange Campus High School (math 4% / reading 35%, grade F, #357 of 399 statewide, top 90%, 1,748 students, 48% FRL).
Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 3,364 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (2,551 in 5+ unit buildings).
Essex County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $252k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.0% in East Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ET7WT8B041K84Z
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29