5986 Lily Patch Ct

Estral Beach, MI 48166

$190,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,588/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $109/mo
• Annual: $1,305/yr
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.45%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (16.4% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#515 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson Schools (Monroe) (rural): math 19% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #358 of 540 in MI (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: North Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #866 of 1,397 statewide, top 65%, 261 students, 52% FRL); Jefferson Middle School (math 14% / reading 34%, grade F, #396 of 493 statewide, top 81%, 400 students, 55% FRL); Jefferson High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #304 of 713 statewide, top 46%, 462 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 36% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 264 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $190k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.