5986 Lily Patch Ct · Estral Beach, MI 48166

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

6,534 sqft lot Est $260k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home on Swan Creek offers canal frontage with room to keep your boat and open access to beautiful Lake Erie - all at a price point that's rarely available for water living. Imagine stepping out your back door, hopping in your boat, and cruising straight out to the lake. Whether you love fishing, sunset cruises, or simply relaxing by the water, this property delivers the lifestyle you've been dreaming about. Inside, the home offers three comfortable bedrooms and plenty of potential. While it does need cosmetic updates, the big-ticket items are already taken care of - featuring a newer roof, and a furnace and A/C that are only a year old. That means peace of mind where it matters most, with the opportunity to add your personal style and build instant equity. Bring your vision, make it your own, and start enjoying life on the water this season!

Key facts

• Canal frontage
• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• CANAL FRONTAGE
• OPEN ACCESS TO LAKE ERIE
• ROOM TO KEEP YOUR BOAT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Slab foundation; Built as a residential single-family home
• Exterior features: Canal-front waterfront on Swan Creek; Dirt road access; Lot approximately 0.15 acre (52 x 148)

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Crawl space basement; Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#515 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson Schools (Monroe) (rural): math 19% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #358 of 540 in MI (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: North Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #866 of 1,397 statewide, top 65%, 261 students, 52% FRL); Jefferson Middle School (math 14% / reading 34%, grade F, #396 of 493 statewide, top 81%, 400 students, 55% FRL); Jefferson High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #304 of 713 statewide, top 46%, 462 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 36% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 264 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $190k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $158,778 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.45%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,400
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6094 Lily Patch Ct	0.21mi	3/3.0	1,840 (+10%)	13mo	$285,000	$155	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-23,941
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-12,249
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48166

• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,588 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $841/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,450

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $216	-5% $163	+0% $109	+5% $55	+10% $1
Rent	-10% $-17	-5% $46	+0% $109	+5% $171	+10% $234
Rate	-1.0pp $204	-0.5pp $157	base $109	+0.5pp $60	+1.0pp $9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 862-char remark

   Show marketing remark (862 chars)

   This home on Swan Creek offers canal frontage with room to keep your boat and open access to beautiful Lake Erie - all at a price point that's rarely available for water living. Imagine stepping out your back door, hopping in your boat, and cruising straight out to the lake. Whether you love fishing, sunset cruises, or simply relaxing by the water, this property delivers the lifestyle you've been dreaming about. Inside, the home offers three comfortable bedrooms and plenty of potential. While it does need cosmetic updates, the big-ticket items are already taken care of - featuring a newer roof, and a furnace and A/C that are only a year old. That means peace of mind where it matters most, with the opportunity to add your personal style and build instant equity. Bring your vision, make it your own, and start enjoying life on the water this season!

2. 2026-05-05
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (862 chars)

   This home on Swan Creek offers canal frontage with room to keep your boat and open access to beautiful Lake Erie - all at a price point that's rarely available for water living. Imagine stepping out your back door, hopping in your boat, and cruising straight out to the lake. Whether you love fishing, sunset cruises, or simply relaxing by the water, this property delivers the lifestyle you've been dreaming about. Inside, the home offers three comfortable bedrooms and plenty of potential. While it does need cosmetic updates, the big-ticket items are already taken care of - featuring a newer roof, and a furnace and A/C that are only a year old. That means peace of mind where it matters most, with the opportunity to add your personal style and build instant equity. Bring your vision, make it your own, and start enjoying life on the water this season!

3. 2026-03-21
   price $190,000 862-char remark

   Show marketing remark (862 chars)

   This home on Swan Creek offers canal frontage with room to keep your boat and open access to beautiful Lake Erie - all at a price point that's rarely available for water living. Imagine stepping out your back door, hopping in your boat, and cruising straight out to the lake. Whether you love fishing, sunset cruises, or simply relaxing by the water, this property delivers the lifestyle you've been dreaming about. Inside, the home offers three comfortable bedrooms and plenty of potential. While it does need cosmetic updates, the big-ticket items are already taken care of - featuring a newer roof, and a furnace and A/C that are only a year old. That means peace of mind where it matters most, with the opportunity to add your personal style and build instant equity. Bring your vision, make it your own, and start enjoying life on the water this season!

4. 2026-03-20
   price $190,000
5. 2026-02-23
   listed $200,000 Active 862-char remark

   Show marketing remark (862 chars)

   This home on Swan Creek offers canal frontage with room to keep your boat and open access to beautiful Lake Erie - all at a price point that's rarely available for water living. Imagine stepping out your back door, hopping in your boat, and cruising straight out to the lake. Whether you love fishing, sunset cruises, or simply relaxing by the water, this property delivers the lifestyle you've been dreaming about. Inside, the home offers three comfortable bedrooms and plenty of potential. While it does need cosmetic updates, the big-ticket items are already taken care of - featuring a newer roof, and a furnace and A/C that are only a year old. That means peace of mind where it matters most, with the opportunity to add your personal style and build instant equity. Bring your vision, make it your own, and start enjoying life on the water this season!

6. 2026-02-23
   listed $200,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (862 chars)

   This home on Swan Creek offers canal frontage with room to keep your boat and open access to beautiful Lake Erie - all at a price point that's rarely available for water living. Imagine stepping out your back door, hopping in your boat, and cruising straight out to the lake. Whether you love fishing, sunset cruises, or simply relaxing by the water, this property delivers the lifestyle you've been dreaming about. Inside, the home offers three comfortable bedrooms and plenty of potential. While it does need cosmetic updates, the big-ticket items are already taken care of - featuring a newer roof, and a furnace and A/C that are only a year old. That means peace of mind where it matters most, with the opportunity to add your personal style and build instant equity. Bring your vision, make it your own, and start enjoying life on the water this season!

7. 1995-04-18
   soldstatus $119,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $841 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,883 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,043/yr (+$87/mo · 124.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$841
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,524
• − Management: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$1,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$469
• After-tax cash flow: $1,774/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Schools (Monroe)
• NCES district ID: 2619800
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $60,701
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #7338
• State rank: #358 of 540 in MI

Livability — Estral Beach

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #15445

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,746

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,439 people
• By 2030: 140,033 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 128,408 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 115,024 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 87,273 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 63,110 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 9% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 35.7% · R 62.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.1 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.69%
• Current HPI: 178.1688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+58.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $190,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $190,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-23 Listed $200,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-23 Listed $200,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1995-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $841 · -54.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.