3263 Vineyard Ave #207

Pleasanton, CA 94566

$415,888C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,501 sqft · Built 2020 · Manufactured · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,047/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,181
• Tax + insurance: −$310
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$850
• Net cashflow: $706/mo
• Annual: $8,475/yr
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.28%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $116,449

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $416k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $706 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $405k (2.7% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($410k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $405k (2.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in CA, #655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Pleasanton Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #43 of 1,400 in CA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $116k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.3% in Pleasanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.