3263 Vineyard Ave #207 · Pleasanton, CA 94566

$415,888

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,501 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition Est $312k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lovely, newer manufactured home in Vineyard Estates (adult community) features: 3 bedrooms; 2 full baths; laminate flooring in living areas and lino in wet areas; shutters and crown molding throughout; ; kitchen with granite counter tops, walk in pantry, and stainless steel appliances; primary suite with private glamour bath featuring shower and separate soaking tub, two walk in closets, front porch; side by side carport, air condition, custom matching shed & more.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Granite counter tops
• Walk in pantry

Tags

• VINEYARD ESTATES
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• WALK IN PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PRIVATE GLAMOUR BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Vineyard Estates community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool and heated spa, game room, rec room with fireplace, greenbelt, park, dog park, car wash area, RV storage, guest parking, laundry facilities; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs; restrictions and approval may apply)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with space for two or more vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (mobile home); Double wide; Single-story layout
• Construction: Cement and lap siding; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch with awning and steps; Back yard and side yard; Automatic front and back sprinklers; Landscaped yard; Yard space; Shed(s) for storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing range (gas); Gas range/cooktop; Microwave; Ice maker hookup
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Updated baths with solid surface finishes and windows; Primary bath with double vanity, walk-in closet, sunken tub and stall shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Fireplace(s) (living room, gas); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Pantry; Dining area; Storage; Sun porch; Living room; Built-in cabinets in laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $416k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $706 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $405k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $405k (2.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.3% in Pleasanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in CA, #655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Pleasanton Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #43 of 1,400 in CA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $116k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($410k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $404,699 (2.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.28%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,208
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3263 Vineyard Ave #189	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+1%)	10mo	$350,000	$231	88
3231 Vineyard Ave #76	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-5%)	2mo	$370,000	$259	86
3263 Vineyard Ave #174	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+7%)	4mo	$315,000	$197	85
3263 Vineyard Ave #125	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,578 (+5%)	6mo	$310,000	$196	82
3231 Vineyard Ave Spc 93	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,413 (-6%)	3mo	$287,000	$203	82
3263 Vineyard Ave #178	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	8mo	$238,000	$165	79
3231 Vineyard Ave., #102 #102	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-4%)	9mo	$205,000	$142	77
3263 Vineyard Ave #42	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+6%)	9mo	$402,000	$253	75
3231 Vineyard Ave., #94 #94	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,340 (-11%)	0mo	$230,000	$172	73
3263 Vineyard #68	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-13%)	2mo	$275,000	$212	71
3263 Vineyard Ave. #35 #35	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-9%)	3mo	$295,000	$216	70
3231 Vineyard #37	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-14%)	10mo	$270,000	$208	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-9,829
• Equity at exit: $62,010

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $104,369
• Equity at exit: $35,958

Cash invested: $116,449 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94566

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,047 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,181
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,639/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$850
• Net cashflow: $706

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,153

Max offer price $415,888

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,972
• Closing costs: $12,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3253 Pomace Ct Pleasanton, CA	4.0	2.5	2000	$5,800	$2.90	43d	1	0.49mi
749 Palomino Dr Unit C Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1130	$3,250	$2.88	43d	1	0.56mi
835 Palomino Dr Unit 2 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$2,850	$2.64	20d	1	0.58mi
3819 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	863	$3,384	$3.92	1d	14	0.65mi
242 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.5	1221	$3,100	$2.54	43d	1	0.70mi
223 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.5	1848	$4,800	$2.60	3d	1	0.75mi
368 Trenton Cir Pleasanton, CA	4.0	3.0	1620	$5,000	$3.09	24d	1	0.82mi
4059 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,850	$2.96	24d	1	0.88mi
1539 Trimingham Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1369	$3,600	$2.63	2d	1	1.15mi
4678 Whiting St Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1538	$5,500	$3.58	24d	1	1.35mi
4320 Valley Ave Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1073	$3,474	$3.24	3d	2	1.46mi
4468 Del Valle Pkwy Unit 1 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1280	$3,100	$2.42	16d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $415,888 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $415,888 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $415,888 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $415,888 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $415,888 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $415,888 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $415,888 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $415,888 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $415,888 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $415,888 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $415,888 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $415,888 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $415,888 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $415,888 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $415,888 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,161 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,521/yr (+$127/mo · 92.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,296
• − Property taxes: −$1,639
• − Insurance: −$2,079
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,885
• − Management: −$3,885
• − Depreciation: −$12,099
• Taxable income: $1,680
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$403
• After-tax cash flow: $8,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home in Vineyard Estates is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace worn-out linoleum in wet areas — New flooring will improve functionality and appearance
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and value
• Both Install new windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase natural light

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace worn-out linoleum in wet areas — New flooring will improve functionality and appearance ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and value ↑
• Both Install new windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase natural light ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasanton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $123,770
• Composite: 73.12/100
• National rank: #351
• State rank: #43 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pleasanton

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #655

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pleasanton, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 78,550
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,222
• Household income: $191,155
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 38% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 33% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Chinese 10% Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -841.68%
• Current HPI: 308.8324
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.04%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $415,888 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,639 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.