13472 Shea Cir

Foley, AL 36535

$272,540D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,429
• Tax + insurance: −$454
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-841/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $76,311

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-841/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (15.8% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 875 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Foley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.