13472 Shea Cir · Foley, AL 36535

$272,540

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot $193/sqft · at area comps Est $268k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OUR BRAND NEW MAGNOLIA PINES SUBDIVISION LOCATED IN FOLEY. Special interest rates with preferred lender well below market average. Call today to get all the details! Be one of the first happy home owners. Your new home is just minutes from OWA, Tanger, shopping and dining in Foley and the beach! The SULLIVAN plan is a charming 4 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 Car garage, comfortable open design home at Magnolia Pines. The kitchen is open to the living and dining area and features an island bar for extra seating and all stainless-steel appliances. The home also has beautiful flooring throughout. This home comes standard with a Smart Home Technology package which includes a KwikSet keyless entry, Skybell doorbell, automated front porch lighting, an Echo Dot device, and a Quolsys touch panel which can be integrated to control your lighting, thermostat, front door and more. Home and community information, including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities, are subject to change sale at any time without notice or obligation. Square feet are approximate. Main photo is of the actual home. Interior pictures are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. D. R. Horton is an equal housing opportunity builder. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence. Estimated completion of May 2026!

Key facts

• Island bar
• Open design home
• 5,227 sq ft lot

Tags

• MAGNOLIA PINES SUBDIVISION
• OPEN DESIGN HOME
• ISLAND BAR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SMART HOME TECHNOLOGY PACKAGE
• KWIKSET KEYLESS ENTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-841/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Foley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 875 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $229,540 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $268,402
• List price: $272,540
• Delta: 1.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13782 Logan Pl	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,410 (0%)	3mo	$272,040	$193	88
13763 Logan Pl	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,410 (0%)	4mo	$271,540	$193	87
13816 Shea Cir	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,417 (+0%)	1mo	$275,000	$194	86
13773 Logan Pl	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (+2%)	4mo	$260,000	$180	78
13772 Logan Pl	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,504 (+7%)	3mo	$245,000	$163	77
16423 Absalom St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,353 (-4%)	2mo	$235,000	$174	69
13742 Logan Pl	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-9%)	4mo	$269,524	$210	68
13753 Logan Pl	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-9%)	3mo	$250,000	$195	68
17015 Sugar Loop	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,481 (+5%)	2mo	$250,000	$169	66
16377 Mansion St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,330 (-6%)	1mo	$259,900	$195	65
13633 Shea Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,205 (-14%)	3mo	$248,900	$207	61
13158 Labradors Run	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-15%)	2mo	$255,000	$213	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-51,309
• Equity at exit: $40,637

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-61,170
• Equity at exit: $23,564

Cash invested: $76,311 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36535

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 875
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,429
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$341 /mo · $4,088/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,384

Max offer price $262,397

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,135
• Closing costs: $8,176
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13634 Logan Pl , AL	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,895	$1.48	21d	1	0.09mi
13691 Logan Pl , AL	4.0	2.0	1417	$1,995	$1.41	21d	1	0.12mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $272,540 Pending 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 80 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 79 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 78 DOM
11. 2026-03-13
    listed $272,540 Active New Construction 1343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1343 chars)

    OUR BRAND NEW MAGNOLIA PINES SUBDIVISION LOCATED IN FOLEY. Special interest rates with preferred lender well below market average. Call today to get all the details! Be one of the first happy home owners. Your new home is just minutes from OWA, Tanger, shopping and dining in Foley and the beach! The SULLIVAN plan is a charming 4 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 Car garage, comfortable open design home at Magnolia Pines. The kitchen is open to the living and dining area and features an island bar for extra seating and all stainless-steel appliances. The home also has beautiful flooring throughout. This home comes standard with a Smart Home Technology package which includes a KwikSet keyless entry, Skybell doorbell, automated front porch lighting, an Echo Dot device, and a Quolsys touch panel which can be integrated to control your lighting, thermostat, front door and more. Home and community information, including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities, are subject to change sale at any time without notice or obligation. Square feet are approximate. Main photo is of the actual home. Interior pictures are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. D. R. Horton is an equal housing opportunity builder. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence. Estimated completion of May 2026!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,266
• − Property taxes: −$4,088
• − Insurance: −$1,363
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,204
• − Management: −$2,204
• − Depreciation: −$7,928
• Taxable loss: −$5,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,322
• After-tax cash flow: $481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready and has a smart home package, landscaping, and flooring that contribute to its value. The home is located in a desirable area with easy access to shopping and dining.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart Home Technology package — Includes a KwikSet keyless entry and Skybe, enhancing both security and convenience.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Smart lighting system — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch to the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart Home Technology package — Includes a KwikSet keyless entry and Skybe, enhancing both security and convenience. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Smart lighting system — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch to the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Foley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #17616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 40,628
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 40,628
• Household income: $66,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.82%
• Current HPI: 262.2796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $272,540 BCAR