8324 Dawn Dr

Oak Ridge, FL 32809

$200,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,671/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$288
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-17/mo
• Annual: $-202/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.36%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-202/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (16.5% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $167k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#115 in FL, #1,768 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Winegard Elementary (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,709 of 2,144 statewide, top 81%, 658 students, 75% FRL); Cypress Creek High (math 20% / reading 44%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 3,467 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 127 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $200k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.