8865 E Baseline Rd #300

Mesa, AZ 85209

$60,000B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 764 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,288/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $603/mo
• Annual: $7,236/yr
• Cap rate: 18.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.07%
• DSCR: 2.92
• 1% rule: 2.15%
• Cash to close: $16,800

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $864 appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Augusta Ranch Elementary (math 47% / reading 58%, grade C-, #233 of 1,109 statewide, top 22%, 953 students, 29% FRL); Desert Ridge Jr. High (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #62 of 218 statewide, top 29%, 973 students, 26% FRL); Desert Ridge High (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #136 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 2,284 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 357 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 118d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 2900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $50k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 3.3% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: paint — paint appears faded and needs touch-up
• Major: flooring — wooden floors show signs of wear