Ashton Plan

Westlake, OH 44145

$374,990D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,854 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 715 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,334/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,347
• Tax + insurance: −$746
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$700
• Net cashflow: $-459/mo
• Annual: $-5,506/yr
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.39%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $125,302

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $375k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-459 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (11.1% below list).
• It's been on market 715 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $330k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in OH, #1,202 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Westlake City (suburban): math 71% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #76 of 656 in OH (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Westlake Elementary School (math 80% / reading 75%, grade A, #213 of 1,584 statewide, top 14%, 1,217 students, 15% FRL); Lee Burneson Middle School (math 75% / reading 83%, grade A+, #54 of 654 statewide, top 9%, 498 students, 16% FRL); Westlake High School (math 56% / reading 81%, grade B, #130 of 781 statewide, top 17%, 1,066 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,441 units permitted in Cuyahoga County in 2024 (700 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cuyahoga County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.7% in Westlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 715 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.