237 County Road 418

Ellsinore, MO 63937

$109,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $870/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $-66/mo
• Annual: $-791/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-791/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (20.2% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#529 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• East Carter County R-II (rural): math 43% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #71 of 324 in MO (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Carter Co. R-Ii Elem. (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 327 students, 66% FRL); East Carter Co. R-Ii Middle (math 37% / reading 52%, grade D, #113 of 391 statewide, top 31%, 141 students, 60% FRL); East Carter Co. R-Ii High (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #179 of 521 statewide, top 39%, 184 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?