237 County Road 418 · Ellsinore, MO 63937

$109,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1990 5.15 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover a unique opportunity to own a move-in-ready home with exceptional land and water features in a quiet, private setting. This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home sits well above the floodplain on a hilltop, providing peace of mind while still offering direct access to the creeks below. The property is less than one mile off the blacktop on a well-maintained county road and only 20 minutes from shopping and amenities in Poplar Bluff. A brand-new survey has been completed with boundaries clearly marked. 5.15 acres +/- bordered on the west side by hundreds of acres of Mark Twain National Forest. Walk directly from the property onto public land for hunting, hiking, and recreation! Cane Creek runs through the south side of the property with both shallow wading areas and a five-foot-deep swimming hole. This is a unique property that you will want to see!

Key facts

• Private setting
• Move in ready
• 5.15 acre lot

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• PRIVATE SETTING
• DIRECT ACCESS TO CREEKS
• WELL MAINTAINED COUNTY ROAD
• PUBLIC LAND FOR HUNTING
• HIKING AND RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-791/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $87k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#529 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• East Carter County R-II (rural): math 43% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #71 of 324 in MO (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Carter Co. R-Ii Elem. (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 327 students, 66% FRL); East Carter Co. R-Ii Middle (math 37% / reading 52%, grade D, #113 of 391 statewide, top 31%, 141 students, 60% FRL); East Carter Co. R-Ii High (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #179 of 521 statewide, top 39%, 184 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,008 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $17,554
• Equity at exit: $58,169

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $58,447
• Equity at exit: $97,535

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63937

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $870 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $99,463

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9	-5% $-28	+0% $-66	+5% $-104	+10% $-141
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-100	+0% $-66	+5% $-32	+10% $3
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-38	base $-66	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   status $109,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   status $109,000 Pending 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $109,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $109,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $109,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-04-28
   status Active 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Discover a unique opportunity to own a move-in-ready home with exceptional land and water features in a quiet, private setting. This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home sits well above the floodplain on a hilltop, providing peace of mind while still offering direct access to the creeks below. The property is less than one mile off the blacktop on a well-maintained county road and only 20 minutes from shopping and amenities in Poplar Bluff. A brand-new survey has been completed with boundaries clearly marked. 5.15 acres +/- bordered on the west side by hundreds of acres of Mark Twain National Forest. Walk directly from the property onto public land for hunting, hiking, and recreation! Cane Creek runs through the south side of the property with both shallow wading areas and a five-foot-deep swimming hole. This is a unique property that you will want to see!

10. 2026-01-20
    status Pending 865-char remark

    Show marketing remark (865 chars)

    Discover a unique opportunity to own a move-in-ready home with exceptional land and water features in a quiet, private setting. This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home sits well above the floodplain on a hilltop, providing peace of mind while still offering direct access to the creeks below. The property is less than one mile off the blacktop on a well-maintained county road and only 20 minutes from shopping and amenities in Poplar Bluff. A brand-new survey has been completed with boundaries clearly marked. 5.15 acres +/- bordered on the west side by hundreds of acres of Mark Twain National Forest. Walk directly from the property onto public land for hunting, hiking, and recreation! Cane Creek runs through the south side of the property with both shallow wading areas and a five-foot-deep swimming hole. This is a unique property that you will want to see!

11. 2025-12-19
    listed $109,000 Active 865-char remark

    Show marketing remark (865 chars)

    Discover a unique opportunity to own a move-in-ready home with exceptional land and water features in a quiet, private setting. This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home sits well above the floodplain on a hilltop, providing peace of mind while still offering direct access to the creeks below. The property is less than one mile off the blacktop on a well-maintained county road and only 20 minutes from shopping and amenities in Poplar Bluff. A brand-new survey has been completed with boundaries clearly marked. 5.15 acres +/- bordered on the west side by hundreds of acres of Mark Twain National Forest. Walk directly from the property onto public land for hunting, hiking, and recreation! Cane Creek runs through the south side of the property with both shallow wading areas and a five-foot-deep swimming hole. This is a unique property that you will want to see!

12. 2024-06-17
    listed $115,000 Active
13. 2023-10-03
    soldstatus
14. 2007-04-26
    soldstatus
15. 2001-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,441
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$835
• − Management: −$835
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable loss: −$2,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$645
• After-tax cash flow: $-146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Carter County R-II
• NCES district ID: 2911100
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $31,660
• Composite: 39.75/100
• National rank: #3891
• State rank: #71 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ellsinore

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #19851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,589

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,648 people
• By 2030: 42,329 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 41,498 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 40,308 · -5.5%
• By 2075: 36,168 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 28,893 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.7% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.3 2016: R+61.6 2012: R+46.7 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Current HPI: 159.9982
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Listed $109,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-17 Listed $115,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $144 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.