1146 Birch Ave #19

Seaside, CA 93955

$175,000B+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,010/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$632
• Net cashflow: $1,169/mo
• Annual: $14,023/yr
• Cap rate: 14.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.62%
• DSCR: 2.27
• 1% rule: 1.72%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#446 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment B+, housing B; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Monterey Peninsula Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #975 of 1,400 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.0%/yr); 55 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 530 units permitted in Monterey County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monterey County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $175k implies a 230% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 2.4% in Seaside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.