4 Makinley Ln

Lumberton, MS 39455

$199,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,990 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,372/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-135/mo
• Annual: $-1,626/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.92%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (31.1% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $137k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#53 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Forrest County School District (rural): math 39% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #47 of 130 in MS (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Forrest Attendance Center (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #113 of 375 statewide, top 31%, 583 students, 100% FRL); North Forrest High School (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #68 of 197 statewide, top 39%, 342 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 67% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Forrest County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Forrest County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.