4 Makinley Ln · Lumberton, MS 39455

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,990 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2007 ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home set on a spacious 2.63-acre lot in a peaceful country setting. Featuring a desirable split floor plan, this home offers both comfort and privacy, making it perfect for families or anyone seeking extra room to spread out. Step inside to an inviting open kitchen with modern updates and plenty of workspace—ideal for cooking, entertaining, or simply gathering with loved ones. A formal dining room adds a touch of elegance for hosting dinners and special occasions. Enjoy your morning coffee or unwind in the evenings on the screened back porch, where you can take in serene views of the surrounding property. With lots of room both i

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Screened back porch
• Split floor plan

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• SCREENED BACK PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 2.63 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Raised foundation
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: One-level layout
• Flooring: Laminate; Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#53 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Forrest County School District (rural): math 39% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #47 of 130 in MS (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Forrest Attendance Center (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #113 of 375 statewide, top 31%, 583 students, 100% FRL); North Forrest High School (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #68 of 197 statewide, top 39%, 342 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 67% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Forrest County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Forrest County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,150 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.92%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $63,617
• Equity at exit: $140,914

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $190,971
• Equity at exit: $270,448

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39455

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,372 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,110/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,543

Max offer price $175,066

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-23	-5% $-79	+0% $-135	+5% $-192	+10% $-248
Rent	-10% $-244	-5% $-190	+0% $-135	+5% $-81	+10% $-27
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-85	base $-135	+0.5pp $-187	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on marketlisting id $199,000 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-01-05
    price $229,000
13. 2025-11-27
    listed $235,000 Active
14. 2005-04-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,110 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,572 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$462/yr (+$39/mo · 41.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,110
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,317
• − Management: −$1,317
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$5,216
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,252
• After-tax cash flow: $-374/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forrest County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801490
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,597
• Composite: 31.45/100
• National rank: #5980
• State rank: #47 of 130 in MS

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #8568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,030
• Population (ZIP): 9,030

Population outlook (Forrest County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 79,264 people
• By 2030: 80,822 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 82,979 · +4.7%
• By 2050: 84,324 · +6.4%
• By 2075: 84,942 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 80,616 · +1.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 15% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Forrest

• 2024 margin: R (+17.9) · D 40.3% · R 58.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -17.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.9 2020: R+11.1 2016: R+14.2 2012: R+11.7 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.23%
• Current HPI: 202.5728
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $229,000 HAAR
• 2025-11-27 Listed $235,000 HAAR
• 2005-04-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,110 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.