11370 SE 123rd Ave

Dunnellon, FL 34431

$239,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,724/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$524
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-415/mo
• Annual: $-4,982/yr
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.20%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-415 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (27.9% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#443 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Levy (rural): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nature Coast Middle School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #399 of 571 statewide, top 71%, 90 students, 82% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 62% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 694 active listings in the ZIP; 199 units permitted in Levy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Levy County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Dunnellon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.