11370 SE 123rd Ave · Dunnellon, FL 34431

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · SingleFamily · 80 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 0.25 ac lot 2-car garage $171/sqft · at area comps Est $242k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully new construction home that is move-in ready and designed for comfortable, modern living. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this home is tucked away from the hustle and bustle of traffic, offering the peace and quiet you’ve been looking for. Inside, you’ll find an inviting open-concept layout that creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen and bathrooms are finished with elegant granite countertops, while the spacious tiled walk-in shower adds a touch of luxury to the primary bath.

Key facts

• Tiled walk-in shower
• New construction
• Granite countertops

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILED WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-415 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.6% in Dunnellon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#443 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Levy (rural): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nature Coast Middle School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #399 of 571 statewide, top 71%, 90 students, 82% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 62% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 694 active listings in the ZIP; 199 units permitted in Levy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Levy County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,373 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.20%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,355
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -1.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11380 SE 123rd Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,394 (0%)	2mo	$230,000	$165	98
11371 SE 135th Ct	1.46mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-3%)	4mo	$311,500	$230	57
11290 SE 128th Ave	0.98mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,437 (+3%)	14mo	$299,000	$208	39
11471 SE 136th Ter	1.49mi	3/2.0	1,567 (+12%)	17mo	$285,000	$182	30
13591 SE 127 Pl	1.27mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-14%)	17mo	$220,000	$184	27
11091 SE County Road 337	1.05mi	3/1.0	1,596 (+14%)	31mo	$195,000	$122	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-65,066
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-90,286
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $239,000 ($171/sqft)
• Median days on market: 109 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +1.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34431

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,249

Max offer price $178,929

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-250	-5% $-333	+0% $-415	+5% $-498	+10% $-580
Rent	-10% $-551	-5% $-483	+0% $-415	+5% $-347	+10% $-279
Rate	-1.0pp $-295	-0.5pp $-354	base $-415	+0.5pp $-477	+1.0pp $-540

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well waterSeptic tankElectricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceNorth-facingSingle-storyCompleted/new construction
• Construction: Block and concrete constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as new construction
• Exterior features: French doorsExterior lightingPrivate mailboxPaved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fansEat-in kitchenOpen floor planWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-07-10
   days on market $239,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-07-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-07-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-07-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-07-06
   days on market $239,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-07-05
   days on market $239,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-07-04
   days on market $239,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-07-03
   days on market $239,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-07-02
   days on market $239,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-07-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-30
    days on market $239,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-29
    days on market $239,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-06-27
    days on market $239,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-06-25
    days on market $239,000 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-06-23
    days on market $239,000 Active 62 DOM
18. 2026-06-21
    days on market $239,000 Active 61 DOM
19. 2026-06-18
    days on market $239,000 Active 58 DOM
20. 2026-06-17
    days on market $239,000 Active 57 DOM
21. 2026-06-16
    days on market $239,000 Active 56 DOM
22. 2026-06-15
    days on market $239,000 Active 55 DOM
23. 2026-06-14
    days on market $239,000 Active 53 DOM
24. 2026-06-13
    days on market $239,000 Active 52 DOM
25. 2026-06-10
    days on market $239,000 Active 50 DOM
26. 2026-06-09
    days on market $239,000 Active 49 DOM
27. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,000 Active 48 DOM
28. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 47 DOM
29. 2026-06-05
    days on market $239,000 Active 44 DOM
30. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 43 DOM
31. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 42 DOM
32. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 41 DOM
33. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 40 DOM
34. 2026-05-30
    days on market $239,000 Active 39 DOM
35. 2026-04-21
    listed $239,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$2,698
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$9,248
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,219
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready, new construction home offers a modern and spacious living experience with excellent condition and minimal maintenance needs.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Lighting — Enhances safety and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Yankeetown School F FL #1,513/2,144 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 High Levy Virtual Franchise

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Levy
• NCES district ID: 1201140
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,254
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4673
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Dunnellon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #7922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 36,536 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,785
• Household income: $56,534
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Levy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,536 people
• By 2030: 34,498 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 30,294 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 26,368 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 19,003 · -48.0%
• By 2100: 13,169 · -64.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Levy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 24.6% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.42%
• Current HPI: 343.1464
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well waterSeptic tankElectricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residenceNorth-facingSingle-storyCompleted/new construction
• Construction: Block and concrete constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt as new construction
• Exterior features: French doorsExterior lightingPrivate mailboxPaved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fansEat-in kitchenOpen floor planWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid